Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Zach Lutmer (6) and Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back TJ Hall (2) defend a pass meant for Oregon Ducks wide receiver Malik Benson (4) Nov. 8, 2025 during a Big Ten Football game at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Three Last-Minute Iowa vs. USC Predictions

Originally posted on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI
By Jordon Lawrenz | Last updated Nov 15, 2025 11:00 AM ET

At this point in the season, it's do-or-die for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Sure, they are already bowl eligible, but they still have a chance to end the season in the Top 25. Iowa's loss to Oregon pushed them out of the College Football Playoffs, but they'd still love to participate in a meaningful bowl game.

Iowa vs. USC has the potential to go one of two ways. Iowa has dominated most of their opponents this season, but for them to do that on the road against the Trojans seems unlikely. Instead, it'll likely be another close game down to the wire.

1. USC Controls the Pace

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

One of the main reasons why Iowa was able to hang in there against Indiana and Oregon is because they forced them to play they're style of football. When it comes to the Trojans, it isn't going to be that easy.

USC gets to play this game at home, so the Kinnick Stadium advantage is thrown out the window. This feels like the type of game that will see USC score early and Iowa will be fighting from behind throughout the remainder of the game.

2. Mark Gronowski Cannot Be Denied

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

It took until the final two minutes against Oregon, but fifth-year senior quarterback Mark Gronowski once again ran for a touchdown. Against the Trojans, things won't be any different. He's run for a touchdown in every game this season, and this USC game feels like one of those where he could even end up with a pair of rushing touchdowns.

Gronowski is continuing to recover after his injury against the Hoosiers, but he's looked solid the past few weeks. He's an extremely reliable dual-threat QB, one that Iowa knows they can trust at any given moment.

3. Iowa Breaks a Pair of Streaks

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The last time the Hawkeyes lost by double digits was to Michigan State on October 19, 2024. They lost that game, 32-20, and it was their only double digit loss of the season. When Iowa heads to USC, the score feels like it could be extremely similar to that.

Time and time again, Iowa's defense has held up, until they couldn't be. This team fails to put together complete 60 minute games against top opponents, and playing on the road is going to be too much against this USC team. Iowa hasn't dropped back-to-back regular season games since October of 2022, but that will be their fate here.

This article first appeared on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: