It’s do or die for Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze this week against Missouri, and the opposing Tigers aren’t planning on letting Freeze’s job security increase. Missouri, despite coming off a close loss to Alabama, is regarded as one of the best teams in the SEC and is hungry to get back in the win column.
16th-ranked Missouri is 5-1 on the season, which, compared to unranked Auburn’s 3-3 record, makes it seem like they’re a shoo-in to take down Auburn this week. Despite that, ESPN gives Missouri just a 53.6% chance to win on Saturday, in large part due to these three players.
For the most part, Missouri games this year could be billed as the “Ahmad Hardy Show,” and the team wouldn’t face any trouble for false advertising. Hardy’s been the lifeblood of the Missouri offense, rushing for 782 yards and nine touchdowns in just six games.
He’s been consistent, too, averaging 6.8 yards per carry thus far in the season, and is a reliable back on just about every down. Against Alabama, though, fans witnessed what happens when Hardy is shut down, and it’s not good for the Tigers.
The Crimson Tide were able to limit Hardy to just 52 yards in the process of handing the Tigers their first loss of the season, though even then he still managed to average just over four yards a carry. The fact that that’s considered shutting down Hardy is a testament to just how dominant he’s been.
Auburn’s rush defense has been stout so far this season, ranking 11th in the country with just 86.5 yards allowed per game. They’ll have to pin their ears back if they want to stop Hardy, though, and they’ll need to stop him if they want a chance against their rival Tigers.
If Hardy gets shut down, the weight of the Missouri offense falls on the shoulders of Beau Pribula, and he’s far from the worst possible candidate. Pribula has been strong so far this season, boasting 1,365 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, completing 72.8 percent of his passes on average.
There are holes in his play, though.
He has thrown five interceptions in his last four games, including two against Alabama. He can rush effectively, totalling 182 yards and four touchdowns with his legs, but he’s also been sacked 14 times. He’s the fourth-most sacked quarterback in the SEC right now, on a list headlined by Auburn’s own Jackson Arnold.
Simply put, if Hardy is rushing well, chances are Pribula is passing well. Shut down Hardy and get to Pribula in the backfield, and Missouri will struggle.
No list against this year’s Auburn team would be complete without a sack threat, as Jackson Arnold is, in fact, the aforementioned leader of the SEC in sacks taken. For Missouri, it’s Damon Wilson II, who’s accounted for 5.5 sacks this season, including two against Alabama just last week.
Missouri’s schedule hasn’t exactly been impressive thus far, so it’s certainly notable that he tied his best performance of the year against what’ll likely be the Tigers’ toughest opponent of the year. He shows up in big moments, and there’s no reason to doubt he’ll do everything he can to take advantage of a struggling Auburn offensive line.
Auburn’s pass protection did look better against Georgia, though; the Tigers, who’ve allowed Jackson Arnold to be sacked 21 times this season, only allowed a single sack against the Bulldogs, though Georgia has only managed to accumulate eight sacks this year.
Hardy could eclipse the Dawgs’ sack numbers on his own this week if Auburn and Arnold aren’t careful, as he’s far and away the best Missouri Tiger at getting to the quarterback.
The Auburn Tigers will certainly have their hands full this week against Missouri, but if there was ever a time for the team to step up to the challenge, it’s in a scenario where the team’s head coach has his back against the wall.
Missouri will travel to the Plains this Saturday at 6:45 p.m. CST with television coverage on SEC Network. A win would buy Freeze more time, but a loss, which would be Auburn's fourth-straight and the Tigers' fifth-straight SEC loss dating back to last season, may be enough to finish his tenure.
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