Time Ticking for USC Trojans: Can Lincoln Riley Bring Program Back to Success?

Following Carroll's departure to the NFL, USC has struggled getting anywhere near the empire Carroll built. From coaching hires to poor athletic director choices, it caused the Trojans to fall behind as a dominant team.

When Riley was hired at USC, following his two Heisman Trophy winners and a CFP appearance at Oklahoma, Trojan fans had nothing but praise and hope for what Riley had the potential to do with a broken and struggling USC program. However, Riley has only steered them in a completely different direction than what he was expected to do.

In three full seasons, Riley's record as head coach at USC has progressively gotten worse -- his best season his first one in 2022, when the Trojans went 11-3 and Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy. It was a perfect example of why Riley was hired.

In 2023, USC finished 8-5 and sixth in the Pac-12. In 2024 they finished 7-6 and ninth in the Big Ten. The conclusion of last season's finish has left concerns and criticism surrounding Riley's tenure in Los Angeles -- Is Riley truly the right coach to bring the Trojans to back national dominance?

If the Trojans ever choose to replace him, Riley's tenure is most likely protected considering his large buyout. Riley has an estimated buyout of $88 million, making it one of the most expensive in college football.

Riley has spent the offseason alongside general manager Chad Bowden to help focus on areas where USC can stand out -- starting with a heavier emphasis on california recruiting, rather than the transfer portal.

Since then, Riley and the Trojans have built the No. 1 2026 recruiting class ahead of elite programs like Texas, Georgia and Ohio State, securing some of the nation's elite football talents to play for USC next year.

Despite having the most talented 2026 recruiting class, college football analysts have seen righ through it.

College football analyst Paul Finebaum has taken a few shots at Riley regarding his progress with USC after years of success, and does not see Riley as an elite coach anymore.

“But I want to say one thing before I go,” Finebaum  said on the Dari Nowkhah Show. “The thing I’m most excited about is the Big Ten media days because I want to hear Lincoln Riley try to explain his last two years. Because I can’t think of anybody whose coaching has been more fraudulent since his first year with Caleb Williams. And I say that as somebody who admired what Lincoln Riley did at OU.”

For analyst Joel Klatt, he see's Riley at USC for much longer -- considering what would happen to USC if they were to fire Riley.

“Now, if he goes 7-5 again, then there’s going to be talk. There’s going to be talk,” Klatt on an episode of the Joel Klatt Show. “Riley’s buyout would be probably around $70 million. But then you have to look at, like, is that worth it? My suspicion is no and here’s why. He has a track record of success. You know he can do it. He’s also, right now at least in the offseason, putting together what is the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. It will not end up there but it will be high…He’s doing very well now.”