Top five Week 1 college football upset picks

Upsets are a major story across college football, and even if Week 1 includes a bunch of uneven matchups, there's still some good upset shots out there. Now, first a word on what constitutes an upset. Every game discussed here has an underdog by a touchdown or more. Sure, there'll be plenty of two or three point underdogs that win, but where's the fun there? Here are five potential big-deal upsets for Week 1.

Florida State (+14.5) over Alabama

This has some legitimate surprise potential. Yes, Florida State was putrid a season ago. But FSU won 10 and 13 games in the two seasons before that. Dual-threat QB Thomas Castellanos brings some energy to the table and Alabama is off a rough season offensively and hands the ball to Ty Simpson, who has yet to throw a college TD. If the FSU pass rush can put some heat on Simpson, the Seminoles have a chance to pull off a game changer of an upset.

Virginia Tech (+7.5) over South Carolina

South Carolina, on the other hand, probably overachieved a season ago, finishing the regular with a six-game winning streak to end up 9-4. But the top five tacklers and the leading sack artist from that defense are gone this season. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech QB Kyron Drones, is an impressive dual-threat player who can extend drives with the legs or arm. The Gamecocks could be in trouble, particularly if Tech's defense can slow LaNorris Sellers at all.

Florida Atlantic (+14.5) over Maryland

The Terps seem ripe for the upset here. There's a QB battle, with true frosh Malik Washington expected to be the long-term future of the program. But for this game, he's still a guy in his first post-high school snaps. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic grabbed an underrated QB in the portal with Western Kentucky's Caden Veltkamp. New head coach Zach Kittley promises to put up yards and points with his system and Maryland looks pretty offensively challenged.

Hawaii (+17) over Arizona

For the Rainbow Warriors, it's almost like that Week 1 win over Stanford is forgotten. Hawaii was tough and resourceful and QB Micah Alejado did enough to pull an upset. He might have another one in the tank. Arizona is off a 4-8 season and QB Noah Fifita had consistency issues with Tetairoa McMillan to catch his passes a year ago. McMillan is gone and Arizona was 0-4 as a favorite last year even with him.

Syracuse (+14) over Tennessee

The Orange were one of college football's surprises a season ago. And yes, Kyle McCord is gone, but it's possible that the system was a big factor in one of the top passing attacks in college football. Speaking of that dichotomy, Tennessee bid adieu to Nico Iamaleava and is trying to plug in Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar. If it works, the Vols will be competitive in the SEC. But if it doesn't, Week 1 suddenly gets really interesting.

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