Tulane vs. UTSA Prediction, Game Preview

Tulane vs. UTSA Keys to Victory

1. Unlocking Tulane’s Run Game Beyond QB
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been the Green Wave’s go-to rusher, leading the team in attempts (70), rushing yards (450) and rushing touchdowns (eight). He set the tone early in the season with a pair of 100-yard games in wins over power conference opponents, but his number of attempts has dropped off dramatically in conference play. Tulane hasn’t had anyone else step up in the running game. Javin Gordon is the team’s No. 2 rusher with 309 yards on the season, but he’s been quiet the last two weeks since a three-touchdown game against Tulsa. Perhaps transfer running back Maurice Turner sees the field more often this week and emerges from a committee. There’s opportunity to be had against the Roadrunners’ run defense after they surrendered 270 rushing yards to North Texas last time out.

2. Lean on Robert Henry Jr.
UTSA’s offense revolves around Henry, the No. 3 rusher in the FBS with 868 yards. He’s a breakaway threat with five 50-yard runs this season, and he leads the nation in yards per carry (8.35) among players with 100-plus attempts. After he struggled against Temple and Rice, Henry got back over the century mark in the loss to North Texas. Tulane’s run defense has been gashed in recent weeks, giving up almost 400 yards on the ground over its last two games. That’s good news for Henry and the Roadrunners, which could also open up the field for quarterback Owen McCown. However, the Green Wave don’t give up many explosive runs, so Henry will have to fight for every yard.

3. Red Zone Opportunities
Tulane’s drives start on their own 38-yard line on average — that’s the best mark in the country and a positive byproduct of a defense that’s forced 11 turnovers and a strong special teams unit. However, the Green Wave don’t always take advantage of those short fields. They rank outside the top 50 teams nationally in red-zone offense, often settling for field goals (kicker Patrick Durkin is 14-for-14 on the year). UTSA has given up points on all but one of its opponents’ red-zone possessions, so this could be a get-right game for Tulane inside the 20-yard line. Conversely, the Roadrunners boast one of the best red-zone offenses nationally, and McCown is particularly efficient in that area of the field. If the Green Wave don’t clamp down in the red zone, they could be in for yet another one-score game.

Score Prediction: Tulane 30, UTSA 27

The Green Wave appear to be in a position to take advantage of the Roadrunners’ weaknesses on the road. Retzlaff and McCown are both willing passers, but this game will be won or lost on the ground. If Tulane limits Henry’s breakaway runs, it should be in position to come away with its third win away from New Orleans this season. It’s worth noting the Green Wave are 4-0 in one-score games, and their last two games came down to the wire. UTSA is 1-2 in that scenario this season.

ATS: UTSA +4.5
O/U: Over 55.5