UConn Lands Varying Future Projections

The UConn Huskies are mere hours away from a smooth 4-2 record. For head coach Jim Mora, things seemed to have been sky-high after finishing 9-4 last season, but if the Huskies can take down Florida International University (2-2) (0-1) on Saturday, then Mora is right on track to replicating his 2024 successes. 

ESPN’s FPI metric, while not perfect, is a good way to take the emotion out of projecting team's future. 

ESPN Outlook

Here is the explanation from ESPN on how FPI works.

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”

The Huskies’ FPI is not too hot as they rank 83rd in the nation with a -5.5.

With those 20,000 simulations, there are a number of other statistics that can be produced 

For example, UConn was predicted a decent 88.5% to win 6+ games, which feels like the benchmark for Mora’s team.

Here is how that 6+ wins is measured: Percent of season simulations in which a team won at least 6 games (typically bowl-eligible).