Updated Big Ten Conference Projections: USC Trojans Crack Top 5?

USC’s win-loss projection is at 8.3-3.9 with a 93.8 percent chance of winning at least six games. When looking ahead to the 2025 season, the Trojans do have a couple of tough matchups, and a couple of opponents early on that could set the tone for the 2025 season. 

The Trojans will face Illinois on Sept. 27, a team that had a stronger season than expected in 2024. Illinois ended the season with a 10-3 overall record, and quarterback Luke Altmyer is returning to the team. This is one of the first opponents USC will face in 2025 that could set the tone of where the Trojans stand in the Big Ten.

The Trojans’ toughest opponents of the season will be the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Oregon Ducks.

The Trojans brought in Notre Dame transfer safety Kennedy Urlacher, the son of NFL Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher, On the other side, Notre Dame brought in USC transfer defensive lineman Elijah Hughes. If the rivalry needed any more intensity, these recent transfers might be bringing it.

The rivalry is also at risk of ending, with the two programs unable to agree on a long-term deal. Notre Dame is already a tough opponent, but with the added components of the rivalry, it will be a big matchup for the Trojans.

The Oregon Ducks are coming off an undefeated regular season. USC and Oregon are familiar foes, coming from the Pac-12, and have not played each other since 2023. It will be a tough matchup for USC and one of the final games of the regular season.

USC has just a 4.2 percent chance of winning the Big Ten, but the Trojans have a 21.0 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

The closest the Trojans have come to making the College Football Playoff under coach Lincoln Riley was in 2022 when the team went 11-3. It was well before the playoff expansion, and the team missed out. With the 12-team college football playoff structure, it is possible for USC to make it, but the Trojans will have to perform better against in-conference opponents.

There is momentum growing with the USC Trojans. The team is heading into the season with quarterback Jayden Maiava set to start. Maiava helped the Trojans win three of the final four games of the season. Behind him is five-star quarterback recruit Husan Longstreet learning and preparing to take over the offense after Maiava. 

With the momentum of recruiting, bringing in needed pieces through the portal, and making crucial staff hirings, USC could take a needed step forward in 2025.

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