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Dec 7, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks celebrate defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten Championship in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Updated Big Ten Projection: Oregon Ducks, Ohio State, Penn State On Top

Originally posted on Oregon Ducks on SI
By Kyle Clements | Last updated Jun 13, 2025 4:00 PM ET

The Oregon Ducks will attempt to become Big Ten champions once again in the 2025 season. ESPN used its FPI metrics to determine the hypothetical finishing standings in the Big Ten for the 25-26 season, and the Ducks find themselves in the top three. Oregon coach Dan Lanning, now entering his fourth season as the Ducks head coach, does have a somewhat easier schedule this season, as he and his team dodge trips to Michigan and Wisconsin.

ESPN’s FPI Metrics currently have given the Ducks a 20 percent chance to lift the Big Ten trophy once more. Even with star wide receiver Evan Stewart potentially missing the upcoming season for the Ducks with an injury, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore can lead the team to another conference championship game.

Oregon’s newest rival, Ohio State, is favored to win the Big Ten championship, with ESPN giving the Buckeyes an astounding 40.3 percent chance of winning the title. The Buckeyes won the national championship last year without winning the Big Ten, but they are in a great position to possibly win both in the 25-26 season.

Doral Chenoweth/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State will be without former quarterback Will Howard, who was drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers. They will rely on returning star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and returning safety Caleb Downs.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been given the second-best chance to win the Big Ten. Penn State coach James Franklin has, in his hands, what is arguably his best team since he took over the program. They will return starting quarterback Drew Allar, and their one-two punch of running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, both of who amassed over 1,000 yards on the ground last season.

Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There is quite a big drop-off after Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon. Coming in at fourth place for most likely to win the Big Ten according to ESPN’s FPI metrics is Michigan. The Wolverines have been given just a six percent chance of winning the Big Ten next season. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore is looking to replace a talented roster that won the College Football Playoff not long ago.

The rest of the Big Ten make up about a 15 percent chance. Northwestern and Purdue are picked to finish in the bottom two of the conference while USC and Nebraska are given a 4.2 percent chance and a 1.5 percent chance to win the title, respectively.

Making up about five percent is a few teams, with Indiana, Wisconsin, and Iowa all picked to finish in the middle of the pack, with each of them holding less than a one percent chance to win the Big Ten when all is said and done. Oregon’s longtime rival Washington has been given the seventh-best chance, coming in at a 0.8 percent chance.