USC vs. Illinois score prediction by expert football model

USC hits the road against Illinois in a consequential Big Ten matchup between ranked postseason hopefuls on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Illinois dropped like a rock to 0-1 in Big Ten play after coming out of Indiana on the wrong end of a 63-10 result last weekend, but quarterback Luke Altmyer is still a 70 percent passer with 9 touchdowns who can move this offense if given the opportunity.

USC is undefeated through four games with a 2-0 mark in Big Ten games after beating Purdue and Michigan State, ranking 8th in the country by averaging 51 points per game and among the dozen best rushing the ball, posting 253 yards on the ground.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Trojans face off against the Illini this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Illinois compare in this Week 5 college football game.

USC vs. Illinois score prediction

As might be expected, the models are siding with the Trojans on this road trip back east, but in a closer game than they might anticipate.

SP+ predicts that USC will defeat Illinois outright by a projected score of 34 to 26 and will win the game by a projected 7.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Trojans a 68 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 94-101 against the spread with a 48.2 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The bookies are giving the Trojans an edge over the Illini in this road test on Saturday.

USC is a 6.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 60.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for USC at -245 and for Illinois at +198 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• USC -6.5
• Trojans to win -245
• Bet under 60.5 points

That’s what most bettors are doing when looking over the odds in this Big Ten clash, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

USC is getting 61 percent of bets to win by at least a touchdown and cover the spread to stay undefeated.

The other 39 percent of wagers project Illinois will either defeat the Trojans outright in an upset, or keep the game within a touchdown in a loss.

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Computer predictions

Most other analytical football models are also going with the Trojans over the Illini, especially after what transpired in Bloomington last Saturday.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

USC is a prominent favorite over Illinois, coming out ahead in the majority 72.9 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves the Illini as the presumptive winner in the remaining 27.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one could be closer than the oddsmakers suggest.

USC is projected to be just 6.3 points better than Illinois on the same field, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations of the game.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch USC vs. Illinois

When: Sat., Sept. 27
Where: Illinois

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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