USC vs. Texas A&M football score prediction 2024 Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert football model

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By James Parks | Last updated Dec 27, 2024 11:51 AM ET

USC and Texas A&M square off in the 2024 Las Vegas Bowl. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas A&M was in position to play for the SEC championship, but a late loss to Texas ended those hopes and the Aggies finished 8-4, and just lost the bulk of its gifted defensive line amid opt outs looking ahead to the NFL Draft.

USC stumbled to a 6-6 record that puts Lincoln Riley’s tenure as head coach under considerable pressure, although the team’s defense has improved from its dismal performance of the previous two years.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Trojans and Aggies meet up in the postseason?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Texas A&M compare in college football’s Las Vegas Bowl game.

USC vs. Texas A&M score prediction

It appears the model is sticking with the SEC team over the Big Ten challenger, but by a manageable margin on the scoreboard.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat USC by a projected score of 31 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.1 points.

The mode l gives the Aggies a 67 percent chance of outright victory over the Trojans.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

Las Vegas Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Texas A&M is a 3.5 point favorite against USC, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -104, Under -118).

And it set the m oneyline odds for Texas A&M at -156 and for USC at +130 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

Texas A&M -3.5
Aggies to win -156
Bet over 53.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the majority of bettors, most of whom expect the Aggies to handle the Trojans, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas A&M is getting 64 percent of bets to cover the spread in a win over Southern Cal.

The other 36 percent of wagers project USC will either win outright in an upset, or keep the margin to a field goal or less in a loss.