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Vanderbilt vs. Missouri prediction 2025 Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins, and why?

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By James Parks | Last updated Oct 25, 2025 10:40 AM ET

Vanderbilt and Missouri square off in one of the SEC’s three ranked-on-ranked matchups as college football’s Week 9 action kicks off, so let’s lock in our final On SI prediction for the game.

Vanderbilt is playing some of its best football ever, rising into the AP top-10 for the first time since 1947 and in position to cause some real trouble in the SEC standings at 2-1 in conference play and 6-1 overall thanks to the eighth-ranked scoring offense in America.

Missouri has Vandy’s exact record and sits seventh in the country in total rushing output and among college football’s top-dozen in scoring, but playing just its second game away from home; the first was a narrow victory in overtime against struggling Auburn.

What can we expect as the Commodores and Tigers face off in this SEC matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Vanderbilt and Missouri kick off, with our updated prediction.

Missouri vs. Vanderbilt prediction: What to watch

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

1. On the ground

Missouri boasts one of the nation’s top rushing offenses, averaging 244.9 yards per game (7th nationally) led by a balanced attack that challenges defenses consistently.

Vanderbilt counters this with a stout run defense ranked 21st nationally, allowing just 92 rushing yards per game. This matchup will heavily influence the game's pace and control, as Missouri aims to exploit ground gains to open up its passing routes.

2. In the air

Vanderbilt’s offense features quarterback Diego Pavia, who has accumulated 1,569 passing yards with a 70.5% completion rate, 15 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

With Vanderbilt ranked 8th nationally in scoring (41.4 points per game), Pavia’s effectiveness is critical against Missouri’s defense, which ranks 16th in points allowed and 13th in pass defense.

The ability of Vanderbilt to sustain drives through the air will test Missouri’s secondary resilience on a unit that ranks among the top-dozen in FBS allowing just 5.7 yards per pass on average.

3. On third down

It’s always the most important situation in any football game, and it could play a decisive role in who wins this matchup, especially given the respective strengths and weaknesses on the field between these opponents.

Vanderbilt comes into the game ranked second in college football by converting 55.7 percent of their third down opportunities into first downs, exploiting Pavia’s mobility in those situations both on designed runs and with his ability to create on its own.

But Missouri will present a credible test against them, sitting at seventh in the country on defense, holding opponents to just 27.5 percent success when trying to move the chains.

Who is favored?

The betting market has been consistent in naming the Commodores a favorite over the Tigers like they did last week, and by just under a field goal.

Vanderbilt is a 2.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Vanderbilt at -142 and for Missouri at +120 to win outright.

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins?

Nicole Hester/ The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two pretty evenly-matched teams with two dynamic quarterbacks who can throw defenses out of their rhythm. And both are playing some of the best overall defense in the SEC.

Vanderbilt is on a generational run, playing at home, and ranks second in the country in success rate. Missouri’s offense really works its best when Ahmad Hardy has running lanes, and so far the Commodores’ expert run-stop is closing enough of those down.

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