Virginia vs NC State: Matchup Breakdown and Final Score Prediction

Trell Harris also turned three catches into 93 yards, showing his ability to stretch the field, while Jahmal Edrine added a touchdown grab. Together, the group provides Morris with what UVA lacked last season: multiple reliable options to keep defenses honest. It’s a clear step forward — now they must prove themselves against a much tougher defense in Raleigh.

But Virginia knows balance will be essential. Against Coastal, the Cavaliers rushed 43 times for 164 yards (3.8 per carry) and three touchdowns. J’Mari Taylor found the end zone twice but was held to just 32 yards. Xavier Brown, who averaged 6.1 yards per rush last season, added 28 yards, while Harrison Waylee chipped in 18 and a score. The numbers weren’t poor, but they weren’t efficient either. Against NC State, that won’t be enough. The Wolfpack held East Carolina to 30 rushing yards on 21 carries last week. Their front seven is anchored by a physical interior line, staples of Dave Doeren’s teams. Protecting Morris is equally critical. Right tackle Wallace Unamba remains uncertain after missing the opener, and his absence would test UVA’s depth. Sophomore Jack Witmer is the next man up, but this is a significant step up in competition from Coastal.

For UVA, the formula is clear: establish at least a credible run threat with Taylor and Brown to prevent NC State from pinning its ears back. If Morris has time, the receivers can create separation — especially Ross in space against a secondary that allowed Michigan State transfer Katin Houser to throw for 366 yards in Week 1.

Virginia Defense vs NC State Offense

Virginia’s defense came out flying last week, forcing three turnovers and limiting Coastal to just 163 passing yards and 91 rushing yards. Army transfer Donovan Platt was excellent in his debut at corner, while safety Ethan Minter notched the team’s lone interception.

Now comes CJ Bailey, the most dangerous player on NC State’s roster. Bailey’s dual-threat ability makes him a nightmare to defend, and Tony Elliott didn’t mince words this week when he compared Bailey’s style to Lamar Jackson. The sophomore quarterback threw for 10 interceptions last season and already has one this year, but his fluidity and arm strength can change games in an instant.

Virginia’s defensive front must keep him contained. Jahmeer Carter is the anchor inside, and Ohio State transfer Mitchell Melton is tasked with providing edge pressure that the Hoos lacked last fall. Linebacker James Jackson, who led UVA in tackles in the opener, will be crucial as a spy to keep Bailey from breaking loose.

NC State’s offensive line is solid but not elite, and its running game was pedestrian against ECU, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. That plays into Virginia’s hands. If the Cavaliers can force Bailey into obvious passing downs, they can bait him into mistakes. A repeat of last week’s three-turnover performance could swing the game.

Special Teams X-Factor

For the first time in years, Virginia has a true weapon in the return game. Ross’ 100-yard kickoff return wasn’t just a highlight — it changed momentum and put Coastal on its heels. NC State will spend the week scheming to keep the ball out of his hands, but even then, Ross’s presence alters field position dynamics.

Kicker Will Bettridge went 2-for-3 last week, connecting from 32 and 41 yards after missing a 52-yarder. Punter Daniel Sparks averaged 48 yards on two punts. In a close game on the road, special teams could be decisive, and UVA’s units look sharper than they did in 2024.

Overview

Virginia faces a decisive challenge. ESPN’s FPI calls it a toss-up at 51.8% (Virginia), signaling real progress for a program not favored on the road in years. This is the moment to prove Virginia’s turnaround is for real.

Virginia’s path is straightforward:

• Force Bailey into mistakes the same way they did Coastal’s MJ Morris (1 INT, 163 passing yards).
• Establish a running game that keeps the offense balanced and effective.
• Get the ball to Ross and limit predictable screen passes.

If those three boxes are checked, UVA will walk out of Raleigh with a win.

Final Score Prediction

This game will be decided in the fourth quarter. Virginia’s aggressive secondary and improved pass rush will challenge Bailey, while the Morris-Ross connection and a more balanced run game give the Cavaliers a real shot to leave Raleigh with a critical win.

Virginia leaves Raleigh with an important road win, and Elliott starts to quiet the critics.

Final Score: Virginia 27, NC State 24

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