Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction: What Do The Advanced Analytics Say?

"Yeah, I think there's a couple things. So when you go back and watch the tape, I felt like the guys were playing hard, but we could have strained just a little bit more. I think when you strain a little bit more, you capture some of the inches in the game.  I think that's kind of what happened. And in the times where we did strain, we did what we needed to do. We found plays,” said Elliot. 

“So I think also, too, we had a little bit of consistency up front. And then that changed over the last couple weeks. Hopefully getting Brady (Wilson) back is going to kind of calm us down a little bit up front. But yes, now we're getting everybody's best effort. So it's a little bit different. It's not like you're sneaking up on people.” 

North Carolina is a team that is in rebuild mode under legendary NFL coach Bill Belichick, who is still getting acclimated to the collegiate game. There have been some bright spots and glimpses, but there have also been some sore spots and just bad play on the field. One of the bright spots came on Friday for the Tar Heels who held an explosive offense in the California Golden Bears to just 21 points and lost by just three points. The Tar Heels got great production from the running game as they rushed for 120 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The defense is improving, and it is a team that is playing with more confidence. 

Despite what the betting lines say, it will be important that Virginia plays clean football and gains the momentum early against the Tar Heels, who are playing better as of late. With the ACC championship game in sight, the Cavaliers have to stay consistent in everything they do. 

What exactly is FPI though?

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

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