Way-Too-Early Virginia Tech Football Preview and Prediction: Week 14, at Virginia

In the 11th and final edition of our “Way-Too-Early” series on Virginia Tech football’s hypothetical 2025 campaign, the Hokies (7-4 “Way-Too-Early”) head up to Charlottesville for a rivalry contest against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Dating back to their first meeting in 1895, the two in-state rivals have faced off nearly every year since 1923, making it one of the most enduring rivalries in college football. Tech holds the record 62-38-5, due in part to running away with the rivalry in the 21st century, havin g accumulated a 22-2 record since the turn of the millennium.

That also includes having won 20 of the last 21 matchups; the only game that the Cavaliers have won against the Hokies in either Brent Pry’s tenure or Justin Fuente before him was 2019, one of the best seasons in Virginia history that culminated in an ACC title game appearance.

Last year’s matchup was a stress-free 37-17 victory for Tech, which occurred without the Hokies’ top signal caller, Kyron Drones. Then-redshirt freshman William “Pop” Watson got the nod against the Cavaliers, throwing for 254 yards in his first career start connecting on a deep ball to Jaylin Lane for a 66-yard touchdown. Watson ran in a touchdown on his own as well en route to 302 total yards.

Offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery is gearing up for his first season in Blacksburg, which will give him his first-ever look at Virginia. While Montgomery is well-versed at commandeering offenses, his best work occurs when his unyielding ground-and-pound scheme is in full effect.

The Cavaliers possessed the No. 15 defense in the ACC last season, yielding 4,900 yards over 12 contests. There is some upside for Virginia’s defense heading into the new campaign; last year, the Cavaliers posted the No. 9 rush defense in the conference. Virginia can look to build upon its already solid front seven to hold solid against Montgomery’s rushing attack.

That brings us to the question of who starts this contest in Charlottesville. And this question is one laced with nuance and context. The answer relies on where Tech is at this point in this season. Are they improbably fighting for a College Football Playoff (CFP) bid? Are they 7-4, like we’ve predicte d: good enough to qualify for a bowl and to be above-average, but not good enough for playoff consideration? Are they 5-6 fighting for bowl eligibility, or below that win total and already out of postseason contention?

In our previous installment of the “Way-Too-Early” series, we predicted that Miami would defeat the Hokies in Blacksburg, dropping Virginia Tech to three hypothetical in-conference losses. No ACC squad has ever made the title game with that many losses and barring an expansion of in-conference matchups, it’s almost 100% likely to stay that way. The pressing query: What do the Hokies have to fight for at this point in the season? Do they have anything to fight for?

With Drones last season in the maroon and orange taking place this season, deciding the starting quarterback could bear more we ight than usual. Depending on where Tech stands in a scenario that would typically call for a backup getting playing time, we could see Drones still get the start to relish in the rivalry for his final time either way.

In the two most recent matchups, a speedster wideout has emerged as the kryptonite for Virginia's coverage. Da’Quan Felton racked up 133 yards as Drones’ main look in 2023, with Lane snagging 91 last season with Watson. With the mold set on how to beat the Cavaliers down the field, that begs the question: who can be the deep connection in this year's November contest? 

A new name in the Hokies program that we could see fit in this role is Tennessee transfer Cameron Seldon. Seldon, at 6-foot-1, possesses a pl ethora of natural speed that can slot in anywhere on the gridiron, seeing snaps both in the backfield and at receiver for the Volunteers. Montgomery implements motions and odd looks to keep defenses uneasy while stopping his offense, and with Seldon, it seems he is the perfect player for that role.

Whether Seldon is running routes around defensive backs or receiving the ball in the backfield with blockers ahead of him, Seldon is sure to be an offensive contributor not only all season, but feature heavily in this rivalry contest.

Thomas broke down everything Montgomery had to say in his presser on Wednesday, which included an excerpt about Seldon:

"You know, at the start of camp, [I was] really, really pleased. I thought he had a good summer, got a better understanding. Number one, of the offense. And then number two, just the position itself. And so, those natural attributes that he has, the speed and all those things you start to see early in camp, him just playing through routes faster, understanding coverages, understa nding spaces. We've got to be able to use him in a lot of different ways. If you ask him, he's not a receiver, but he's also not a running back. He's a football player. And to be able to get the ball in his hands and let him go do special things, that's what we're going to be trying to do."

And to answer the question that already possesses the answer: Yes, Tech beat Virginia in our hypothetical. Even in dark periods of Hokies football this century, 95% of the time, Tech beat ’Hoos.

Since the turn of the century, besides the aforementioned Cinderella-esque 2019 squad, the Cavaliers have been unable to find solid footing to compete down the stretch of a grueling ACC campaign. Incoming graduate student transfer Chandler Morris will be looking to command the ‘Hoos to their first 2019. Out of the three Virginia receivers in 2024 to record at least 200 receiving y ards, Trell Harris is the only returning target for Marris to look towards.

Look for Harris to transition into the lead wideout role for the Cavaliers in 2025 with speedster Cam Ross transferring in-state from JMU, possibly slotting behind to see more playing time than he did with the Dukes. 

Morris won’t carry the entirety of the offensive burden alone; one of Virginia's most proven weapons returns in senior running back Xavier Brown. A four-year contributor and one of the program's most experienced skill players, Brown enters the season as a preseason candidate for the 2025 Doak Walker Award, given annually to the nation’s top running back. His leadership and production in the backfield should help take pressure off Morris as the new quarterback settles in.

Given the unpredictability of the colleg e football season and the uncertainty surrounding which teams will become bowl contenders, projecting Virginia Tech’s postseason outlook remains difficult. The nature of college football, marked by injuries, unexpected upsets and rapidly shifting momentum, makes bowl matchups extremely hard to predict. Add in the vast pool of bowl-eligible opponents — Tech can face 117 of the 134 FBS teams — and the margin for accurate projections narrows even further.

With the hypothetical “Way-Too-Early” record reaching 8-4, that mark would represent the program’s best regular-season finish since 2017, when the Hokies went 9-3 before falling to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. While an eight-win campaign wouldn’t mark a full-scale return to the national spotlight, it would be a meaningful step in the right direction for a team seeking consistency under third-year head coach Brent Pry.

Despite significant offseason losses, this year's roster, though thinner on star power, may be more cohesive than it appears on paper. The 2024 squad produced a high volume of draft-ready talent, and while this iteration lacks the same level of name recognition, it doesn’t necessarily lack potential. With expectations externally low, the Hokies are in a position to quietly exceed projections. This season might not bring the long-awaited return to the highs of the Frank Beamer era, but it could provide a solid foundation and mark a transitional year that sets the stage for a brighter future. If Pry and his staff can maximize what they have, 2025 might be the bridge season that leads to sustained success in the years to come.

Score Predictions for Virginia Tech at Virginia:

Thomas: Virginia Tech 45, Virginia 10

Kaden: Virginia Tech 40, Virginia 16