Back to work with a Week Two Edition of our NCAA Football Parlay. A disappointing start as last week’s NCAA week’s picks again resulted in a 1-2 ATS record. That drops our season total to 2-4 ATS. Loyal followers know we target games attracting respected or sharp money, more precisely, reverse line movements. In addition, those where the Vegas oddsmakers have a significant liability. In other words, the outcomes that the sportsbooks need to profit from on the day. We have three selections on tap for you this opening week and some additional leans based solely on the initial line movements. Betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
The opening leg of this week’s NCAA football parlay will be the Texas Longhorns-San Jose St. Spartans first half over 28.5. Texas is big chalk in this early afternoon match-up, and instead of laying a ton of points, we will play on the Longhorns’ offense. Texas will be looking to rebound after last week’s seven-point outing and loss to Ohio State.
Arch Manning needs a get-right game and will find one here against a Spartans’ defense that last season allowed 72 points in their last two games against power five schools. In addition, the sharp money is on the over in this one. Arch Manning will get it rolling in week two, Texas-San Jose St. first over 28.5 for play number one!
The middle leg features the Kentucky Wildcats +10.5 over the Ole Miss Rebels. We spotted a reverse line movement in this week two SEC battle. Kentucky is seeing just 36% of the tickets, and yet the line has moved in their favor. They opened up as a 10.5-point underdog and have since dropped to 8.5 at the books. Kentucky, as an underdog, is 4-1 ATS in its last five and 6-4 ATS in the last 10.
On the other side, Ole Miss is just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite for -0.45 units. The dog is barking in this one. We will buy the full point to get the betting edge and take Kentucky +10.5 for play number two!
Closing out our NCAA football parlay will be the Alabama Crimson Tide-UL Monroe Warhawks first over 27.5. Alabama is another team looking to get right after losing last week. The Tide scored just two touchdowns in the loss to Florida State, but should have no problem taking out their disappointment on the Warhawks, whom they scored 63 points against the last time they faced off. UL-Monroe allowed 38 points per game in its last four games of 2024, including 48 to Auburn, another SEC team. We like the tide to roll early. Alabama Crimson Tide 1H over 27.5!
Additional Leans: Jacksonville State, Baylor
Our NCAA football parlay picks provide followers with three individual selections. We play these picks SU and then sprinkle some on both an ATS and Moneyline parlay. Remember, the hit rate on a three-team parlay is about 6-1, and parlays in general are just not a long-term profitable betting strategy.
Hitting on the parlay is simply icing on the cake. We try to avoid public plays and find where the sportsbook has heavy liability. In other words, the crucial games Vegas needs to profit from on the day. Please follow us on X and Facebook and monitor our social media platforms for any adjustments due to last-minute betting trends. Let’s get you three winners this week. And remember to: Follow or Fade!
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
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