What are realistic expectations for Allar?

ALTOONA, Pa. -- The hope and expectation for Drew Allar was that he'd become a superstar at Penn State, a generational type of quarterback who puts up huge numbers and, well, looks fantastic while doing so.

We didn't see that last season.

We saw Allar be the ultimate game manager, tasked with keeping things simple, not risking much and not turning the ball over. When you have the No. 1 defense in the country -- which Penn State did during the regular season -- and a terrible wide receiving situation, the coaches decided there wasn't much need for Allar to make a bunch of dynamic plays to win slugfests.

The problem with that line of thinking was that Allar never fully developed his overall game. And so when it came time for him to carry a bigger burden in gigantic contests against Ohio State and Michigan, he wasn't remotely ready to so.

OK, so enough about last season.

What will we see from Allar this year?

More of the same?

A gigantic improvement?

A superstar, as in legit Heisman contender?

Then there's this ultimate question: Will this be the final year we get to see Allar at Penn State? Whether he's great or merely much improved, there's a good chance he will look to turn pro early if his NFL Draft stock is trending in the right direction.

As Penn State gets set to play the Blue-White Game on Saturday, all eyes will be on Allar and how comfortable he looks running things under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.

“I feel like I play my best when I'm loose, free and confident and just having fun out there,” Allar said last week. "I think I've done a lot better job with that (during the spring)."

That quote in and of itself is fascinating!

Because again, we really didn't get to see Allar be those things for much of the 2023 season, while in game manager mode. He obviously did a tremendous job not throwing interceptions -- 25 TDs and only two picks -- but for lack of a better word, he was really sort of neutered when it came to being loose and free as a quarterback.

Here's another interesting thing Allar said recently:

“I’ve kind of let the more competitive side of me come out this spring -- talking to the offense, being a more vocal leader and then also talking to the defense. So, I think that's when I play my best, when I'm just having a lot of fun and not really thinking, kind of just going out there and playing and just being loose.”

If he gets to chance to do all of that this season, how good can he be?

Let's look at the possibilities.

A: SUPERSTAR, HEISMAN CONTENDER

I don't see this at all, and it's not even about Allar or his skill set.

It's about what Penn State is, what James Franklin likes to do playing to strengths, and how just going out and slinging the ball all over the field doesn't fit any of that.

Even if the Lions are great, such as 12-0, it won't be because Allar is throwing for 4,500 yards and 45 touchdowns. It'll be because the defense is excellent, and also the running game. If Penn State can beat people by having Nichols Singleton and Kaytron Allen running for 250 yards and the defense shutting teams down, then Allar won't have a chance to put up gaudy numbers.

This isn't Lamar Jackson at Louisville. Or Jayden Daniels at LSU. The Penn State offense could be very good without having Allar light things up every week.

Yeah, sure, if Penn State is undefeated and Allar is the quarterback, he will definitely get Heisman consideration. The QB on great teams gets that regardless. But he won't put up the kind of numbers it takes to win it or even come close.

B: TERRIFIC NUMBERS, VERY CONSISTENT

This should be the goal for Penn State fans. But to get here, it will take a whole bunch of things going right.

What would qualify as terrific numbers and very consistent? Let's go with:

3,500 yards, 35 TDs, 6 INTs, 65 percent completion.

If he does that, Allar will have proven himself at Penn State and then would go ahead and enter the NFL Draft, where he'd be a likely first-round pick.

But here's the thing: Allar only threw for 2,631 yards and completed 59.9 percent last season. His footwork was all over the place, his accuracy was too erratic and he didn't always see the field very well when he had guys running open.

So, to jump to 3,500 yards, 35 TDs and 65 percent would take some serious, serious improvement.

I'd put the odds of him getting into this category at about 30 percent. Again, even if he does play a whole lot better, it's not like Penn State is going to become a super pass-heavy offense, not with the big questions remaining at wide receiver.

C: GREAT AT TIMES, STILL UP AND DOWN

I'm gonna go with 50-50 odds on this one.

I expect Allar to show a much higher ceiling on numerous occasions, along with a higher floor than the disasters he endured against Ohio State and Michigan.

But I don't expect him to go out and complete 65 percent while throwing for a ton of yards.

This category would have him in the 3,100-yard range, with 30 TDs and 8 INTs. Yes, he protected the ball very well last year, but he wasn't asked to make a lot of difficult throws or to even use the entire field, where dangers lurk everywhere.

If the offense does open up this year, I expect Allar to take more chances, which will lead to some big highlights but also some questionable decisions and turnovers.

D: SIMILAR TO LAST YEAR, LITTLE IMPROVEMENT

If this is the case, then the talk will turn to Allar being a big disappointment.

But I don't see this happening. He's got a lot of skills, he's got a year under his belt and the wide receivers have to be better this year. They just have to be!

Also, keep in mind, the defense should be very good, but it won't be as awesome as last year. So, there should be more games where the offense is expected to do more, and Allar is expected to do more than just be a game manager. That aspect itself should lead to better stats than he had last season.

Which category do you think Allar will ultimately fall in: A, B, C or D?

Let us know in the comments.