What College Football Playoff teams from last season could miss it this year?

Odds to miss CFP: +128

Odds to make it: -160

The loss of quarterback Riley Leonard and some other important contributors on the defensive side of the football could derail the Irish early on against some tougher opponents like Miami, Texas A&M, and Boise State.

But a good showing in those early games, which include a road date in the SEC against Arkansas, will impress the committee, as should what remains arguably college football’s top backfield with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price both coming back.

The verdict: Notre Dame makes it

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Tennessee

Odds to miss CFP: -400

Odds to make it: +300

The sudden and still basically unexplained departure of quarterback Nico Iamaleava carved a giant hole in an offense that was hoping to lean on him after losing lead rusher Dylan Sampson to the NFL this offseason.

Joey Aguilar looks like a quality replacement on paper, stacking up 6,760 yards and 56 touchdowns in two years, but he’s also prone to turnovers. Plus there are questions on the offensive line (which may have hastened Iamaleava’s exit) and at wide receiver, not to mention a tough slate that includes Alabama and Florida on the road.

The verdict: Tennessee doesn’t make it

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Oregon

Odds to miss CFP: +164

Odds to make it: -205

Don’t expect the Ducks’ offense to light up the scoreboard the way it did last season with Dillon Gabriel and those stud receivers at the helm. This line makes some big replacements, Dante Moore steps in under center, and that WR group will look very different.

But we should see some more convincing returns from all those top-flight players Dan Lanning has spent time recruiting, and Oregon plays a more favorable schedule, with just a road date against Penn State that’s something like a real challenge.

The verdict: Oregon makes it

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Indiana

Odds to miss CFP: -950

Odds to make it: +590

It wasn’t luck that enabled the Hoosiers to qualify for the College Football Playoff last season, so it would be wrong to write off Curt Cignetti’s accomplishment, but they did take advantage of what was an easier schedule.

Don’t expect Indiana to vanish into the background, not with a star receiver coming back in tandem with some key defensive contributors, but we should see this offense regress just enough to where it won’t be in the playoff picture late in the year.

The verdict: Indiana doesn’t make it

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Georgia

Odds to miss CFP: +220

Odds to make it: -290

Kirby Smart has built his mini-dynasty at Georgia on the back of a suffocating defense that was never short on reinforcements, but that rotation slipped a little last season, falling to 23rd in scoring, 38th against the pass, and 53rd in the red zone.

And the Bulldogs’ offense is still a mystery with an unknown commodity in Gunner Stockton at quarterback, key replacements on the line, some new receivers, and a rushing attack that was 15th in the SEC last season.

The verdict: Georgia makes it

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SMU

Odds to miss CFP: -620

Odds to make it: +430

Some turnover on this roster and a more difficult schedule could conspire against the Mustangs, who lost against two CFP teams a year ago, go against Clemson and Miami this time in addition to tough non-conference games against Baylor and TCU.

The verdict: SMU doesn’t make it

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Texas

Odds to miss CFP: +235

Odds to make it: -300

No greater gulf exists for any player between his potential and his experience than that of Arch Manning, the former No. 1 overall recruit with that famous surname who will finally take over as QB1 for the Longhorns this season.

But this roster is loaded on both sides of the ball apart from Manning and has the firepower to make a national title run, not least owing to what might be the SEC’s best defense, provided they can trudge through a tough schedule that includes opening at Ohio State.

The verdict: Texas makes it

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Arizona State

Odds to miss CFP: -590

Odds to make it: +410

No major conference is as competitive as the Big 12, as we saw when the Sun Devils, infamously picked to finish last in the league, went on to win it, and something equally astounding is capable of happening again this year.

The loss of brawler Cam Skattebo in the backfield is something to worry about, but it shouldn’t completely derail an offense that still returns quarterback Sam Leavitt and thousand-yard receiver Jordyn Tyson.

The verdict: Arizona State doesn’t make it

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Ohio State

Odds to miss CFP: +235

Odds to make it: -310

Another aspect of the expanded College Football Playoff will be how less likely it is to repeat as national champion, but it’s not just the law of probability that could keep the Buckeyes out of the picture; it’s a program that makes a lot of changes in 2025.

Both coordinators who were integral to that title run are gone. So is the quarterback, a pair of thousand-yard rushers, some key blockers, and two elite edge rushers. Missing out on a 12-team field would be a severe indictment of Ryan Day’s ability, but he returns enough of a strong pass defense and wide receiver room to crack the final dozen again.

The verdict: Ohio State makes it

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Penn State

Odds to miss CFP: +225

Odds to make it: -290

A deep playoff run and a ton of returning experience on offense appropriately has Happy Valley abuzz with optimism that they can do it again and take it a step further this time.

On closer inspection, though, those big playoff wins were against an SMU team playing its first Power Four season and Boise State, the Group of Five pick. They lost to Ohio State in the regular season and Oregon in the Big Ten title game, and then to eventual runner-up Notre Dame in the semifinal game.

This year, they get both the Bucks and the Ducks, but the latter game is at home and the first one against a team in transition.

The verdict: Penn State makes it

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Clemson

Odds to miss CFP: +148

Odds to make it: -188

They’re the big favorites to win the ACC again this year and if so, that would be enough to get back to the playoff. Cade Klubnik is back under center after a career year and he has one of college football’s most experienced lines and more promising receiving corps.

But this team got pantsed by Georgia and lost against unranked Louisville and then to South Carolina before edging out SMU to win the conference title. Returning talent is good, but there were execution issues we’re not sure are cleaned up yet.

This year, they’ll go to Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Louisville after opening against LSU and then closing against the Gamecocks. It’ll be close.

The verdict: Clemson makes it

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Boise State

No more Ashton Jeanty for this offense to lean on, and it won’t be surprising if the Broncos are unable to manhandle Mountain West opponents in the same way, but it’s still hard to not see this as the best Group of Five team, unless Tulane makes a little run.

Odds to miss CFP: -225

Odds to make it: +176

The verdict: Boise State makes it

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