What is Oklahoma State's Worst-Case Scenario for 2025?

Oklahoma State needs a bounce-back year, but 2024 could have been the start of a dark period.

OSU struggled last season, but no one expected the Cowboys to be as bad as they were. Entering the season as a Big 12 favorite and a College Football Playoff contender, OSU was expected to be in the national championship conversation when November rolled around.

Instead, OSU didn’t even make it to mid-November with any hopes of even making a bowl game. After such a devastating season, OSU lost an abundance of talent and made some significant changes to the coaching staff, narrowly sparing Mike Gundy.

As Gundy enters his 21st year as the head coach at his alma mater, he will need to prove to the world that he can still coach at a high level and bring this program back into the center of the Big 12 discussion. Of course, after winning only three games, it would be unreasonable to expect the Cowboys to suddenly be in conference title conversations.

However, OSU understands that it needs to see some significant improvements to simply get back to a bowl game. The Cowboys were among the worst teams in the entire FBS last season, and minimal improvements won’t do much to raise their status in the Big 12.

What is Oklahoma State’s worst-case scenario for 2025?

Simply put, OSU’s worst outcome for the upcoming is likely a 2-10 record. With almost guaranteed wins against FCS squad UT Martin and FCS-level Tulsa, the Cowboys could simply repe at their conference misfortune while adding a loss against top 10 Oregon.

While that is legitimately as bad as OSU can be seen, a more realistic worst-case scenario is probably something in the four-win range. The Cowboys have a somewhat favorable conference schedule and are hungry to prove they belong.

Of course, predicting the Cowboys’ worst-case scenario isn’t an exact science. Before last season, I wrote that OSU’s chances of a bad year were slim to none, so who knows what OSU might do in 2025.

Still, knowing there is some added pressure and that they will be playing for Gundy’s job, the Cowboys will likely begin the Big 12 slate with some added urgency. Of course, four wins, which would include a couple of Big 12 victories, would be a step up from last season and might be enough to keep Gundy’s job safe, especially if OSU is competitive in other games.

However, with so many changes and an abundance of veteran talent leaving the program after 2024, it might simply be too much for OSU to recover from. Performing at a high level in 2025 is the expectation, but things could easily go south in Stillwater.