The most important date of the preseason is here as the AP top 25 college football rankings went live on Monday, and predictably the deck was stacked with SEC and Big Ten teams, and the No. 1 team that made a little history in the process.
While being No. 1 always feels good in any poll, the truth is that debuting in pole position during the preseason is no guarantor of a national championship.
If anything, it could definitively prove that you don’t win one. Just two teams have started the season No. 1 and finished as champions since the turn of the century, USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017 being the lucky pair to go the distance.
Still, the preseason rankings serve as a kind of arbiter of what to expect in the national championship race, as no team in the College Football Playoff era that lifted the trophy started out lower than No. 6 in the preseason poll.
So, yes and no, the preseason rankings are and are not relevant when it comes to predicting the future.
What did the AP top 25 voters get right, and wrong, this preseason?
Texas is the No. 1 team. For the first time ever, the Longhorns debuted at No. 1 in the preseason, remarkable in itself when you think about it. They had been No. 2 five times, including in 2005 when they won the title, but never in the top position.
And it should be. Yes, the Longhorns look like the best team in college football on paper, and not by a long way only because of Arch Manning. This defense is stacked with elite pass rushers and the offense with field-stretchers at receiver, both of whom could easily upset Ohio State in Week 1.
SEC rules. Once again, the conference that has owned this century owns the preseason, leading the way with 10 teams in the initial rankings, a full 63 percent of the league being represented. Talk of the SEC falling behind the Big Ten over the last two years is premature: this is still top to bottom the most talented conference in the country.
Indiana still gets respect. The team — the program, really — that came out of nowhere a year ago to win 11 games and make the playoff may not be quite as dominant this year, but returns enough on both sides of the ball to earn respect from the pollsters.
Penn State’s first-place votes. Just two votes separated the Nittany Lions from Texas in the No. 2 position, showing the pollsters respect Penn State’s continuity on both sides of the ball, and giving a vote of confidence to a team that is in prime position to strike and make another deep playoff run.
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Clemson was too low at 4. The favorites to win the ACC return enough production on both sides of the ball to earn top-three consideration, above an Ohio State team that has huge holes to fill in the key positions where Clemson returns known skill.
So was Texas Tech at 23. We ranked the Red Raiders’ transfer class as the best in college football after a spending blitz that radically transformed the defensive side of this roster for the better, and they get a very underrated quarterback in Behren Morton back to make a run in a wide-open Big 12.
Ohio State in the top five. The reigning national champions are bound to get a lot of votes the following preseason, but too much of what made this a title team is gone, including both of its brilliant coordinators, two stud backs, the quarterback, and key defensive inputs.
Arizona State at 11. The Sun Devils could still make a little noise in the Big 12, but it felt like the voters were overcompensating for this team being so criminally overlooked a year ago. Cam Skattebo, the heart and soul of this team, is gone, and while Sam Leavitt returns at quarterback and Jordyn Tyson at receiver, this team will not be as good as it was a year ago.
Oklahoma at 18. A team that still has so many mysteries around it should not be inside the top 20. OU allowed the most sacks in the country a year ago, are still an unknown up front, and are making major structural changes at quarterback, running back, and offensive coordinator.
Boise State being ranked. Ashton Jeanty was the engine of the Broncos’ offense a year ago. Now he’s gone, and this team still hasn’t beaten a Power Four program in five years.
Where was Missouri? It’s easy to overlook the Tigers after the loss of Brady Cook and Luther Burden, but there’s still enough there to warrant more attention, apparently not enough, or really any, from either AP voters or the coaches.
Ole Miss was ranked? This seemed like a case of pollsters looking too much at last year’s team, but this roster returns just an expected five starters and loses the bulk of that talent that won 10 games last season. No SEC team returns less than the Rebels.
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