With just two more weeks remaining in the regular season, followed by conference championships and the new, 12-team playoff, major college football is building toward a crescendo.
All eyes are on the Top 25 teams as ranked by the College Football Playoff committee, with several Week 13 matchups potentially acting as de facto elimination games.
Here's a refresher on how the CFP works and a brief look at potential playoff scenarios.
How does the 12-team College Football Playoff work?
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic berths into the 12-team bracket, with the top four earning a first-round bye.
The next seven highest-ranked teams will then slot into the bracket's first round. A ranking in the top 12, however, doesn't mean the schools will be seeded that way in the playoffs.
The fifth-highest ranked conference champion, for example, may not be the No. 5 seed. It could very well be as low as the 12th seed depending on where the committee has it ranked.
The first-round winners will advance to the quarterfinals to play the conference champions granted the bye. Then the quarterfinal winners will advance to the semifinals — without being re-seeded — and so forth to the national championship game Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
Four of the New Year's Six bowls will host the quarterfinal games, with the remaining two hosting the semifinals.
What could the 12-team bracket look like this year?
The playoff committee released its newest rankings Tuesday with Oregon (11-0), Ohio State (9-1), Texas (9-1), Penn State (9-1) and Indiana (10-0) rounding out the top five.
The bracket, however, looks different. Here's how ESPN projected the bracket seedings as based on the committee's rankings.
THE UPDATED CFP BRACKET PROJECTION pic.twitter.com/btjbCEx38a
— ESPN (@espn) November 20, 2024
Despite Big Ten members Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana being in the CFP top five, only the conference's leader — Oregon — could be slotted into a top-four seed.
Therefore, Ohio State could only reach as high as the No. 5 seed, Penn State as a No. 6 seed and Indiana the No. 7 seed based on the rankings order.
Texas, however, moves up from the No. 3 ranking to the No. 2 seed based on the fact that it's the second-highest ranked conference leader (SEC).
Boise State (9-1) is ranked No. 12 by the CFP but sits in the No. 4 seed by virtue of it being the fourth-highest ranked conference leader (Mountain West), ahead of No. 14-ranked BYU (9-1). That's so even though the Cougars are in a Power 4 conference (Big 12).
Could there be more playoff snubs this year?
As with any tournament requiring qualification, there will be teams disappointed not to be included. In 2023, when college football had a four-team playoff, undefeated Florida State was left out due to serious injuries to its starting and backup quarterbacks.
This season, the playoff committee's weighted criteria — such as strength of schedule and strength of record — plays a more significant role with the expanded field.
Entering Week 13, No. 11 Tennessee (8-2) and No. 13 SMU (9-1) are on the outside looking in.
That could all change after Saturday, just as No. 10-ranked Georgia (8-2) was on the outside of the bubble in Week 12 and found its way back in after an impressive win over the Volunteers.
The Big Ten and SEC look poised to have four teams each qualify while the ACC and Big 12 will likely have just their champions representing their conferences.
The Group of Five champion — as it stands now that would be Boise State, but it could be No. 19 Army or No. 20 Tulane — will surely only have one representative.
Notre Dame, an independent, is included by virtue of its 9-1 record, but another loss could knock it out of the CFP.
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