What's Wrong With Louisville's Offense?

Entering the 2025 season, most fans, analysts and pundits believed that the Louisville football program would be a team that would be led by their offense.

The Cardinals had one of the best running back duos in the nation in Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Their wide receiver duo of Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy was viewed as one of the best in the ACC, and their tight end room was making progress. Highly-touted transfer quarterback Miller Moss was also generating a lot of offseason buzz, and was viewed as someone who had the potential to thrive in a Jeff Brohm-led offense.

While the defense would be what determined Louisville's ceiling, the general consensus was that their offense is what would win them games. But over the first month-plus of the 2025 season, this sentiment has been the exact opposite.

The Cardinals' defense has been among the nation's elite in terms of yardage allowed and stop rate, and haven't shown signs that it's a product of playing a relatively easy first month of the year. But, more importantly and perhaps more shockingly, Louisville's offense has not even come close to looking like what was expected.

Through the first five games of the year, Louisville's 36.0 points per game ranks 36th in the FBS, while their 404.0 yards per game is 59th. Per Pro Football Focus, their 71.8 team offensive grade is 66th nationally, and 45th among the 68 power conference teams. In Louisville's four games vs. FBS competition, they have posted offensive success rates of just 44 percent (BGSU), 32 percent (Virginia), 31 percent (Pitt) and 17 percent (JMU).

Across the board, based on preseason expectations, this is a unit that is woefully underperforming. So what exactly is the problem with Louisville's offense? Well, it's not as simple as just pointing out one area.

In football, given the importance of the position, quarterbacks tend to receive both too much praise or too much blame for a team's success or failure. While Miller Moss hasn't been the sole reason why Louisville's offense is in a tailspin, he certainly plays a role.

On one hand, he actually does a good - albeit not great - job of keeping the passing game on schedule. His completion percentage of 67.0 ranks 43rd in the FBS, while his 271.6 yards per game is 18th. For about two-thirds of the game, Moss does his job. There is sometimes a spectacular play sprinkled in, but more often than not, it's chain-moving throws.

However, while Moss has been a sensible salad for large swaths of the season, he has also produced a handful of reps each game that are some of the most egregious plays and decisions you'll ever see out of a fifth-year player.

He's already thrown four interceptions and two pick-sixes, and there have been several other throws that also should have have picks had the defender not dropped the ball. Of the 48 power conference quarterbacks with at least 150 drop backs, his "turnover-worthy play" percentage, per PFF, is tied for seventh.

Moss also has a tendency to either not see clear and obvious pressure, which results in a sack, just rolls right into a defender on his pass rush, or has struggled with climbing the pocket. Additionally, he also continues to struggle with either under throwing passes on the run, or overthrowing wide open receivers.

This is the best way I can describe Miller Moss up to this point: Imagine going on Wheel of Fortune, and 75 percent of the spaces are the $100 to $500 range. Nothing that will wow you, but enough to keep building your pot. There's also a couple spots on the wheel where it's $10,000 or more, but they're few and far between. Then the remaining spots on the wheel all say "BANKRUPT," and you have no idea when it's coming.

Of course, Moss has been far from the only aspect of the offense that hasn't lived up to expectations. In fact, the primary reason why that side of the line of scrimmage has struggled so much has been the offensive line.

There's no other way to put it: the O-Line for the Cardinals has been absolutely dreadful so far this season. Their 2.60 sacks allowed per game ranks 107th in the FBS, while their 6.40 tackles for loss allowed is 111th. The advanced stats paint a similarly bleak picture, as Louisville's 63.2 pass block team grade is 83rd, but their 50.1 run blocking grade is 123rd.

Making matters worse, Louisville can't find an offensive line combination that works, either, as they've rolled out three different starting fives. Plus, of the five primary linemen in the rotation, the only one with an offensive grade over 62.0 is Pete Nygra, who has started every game at center. As far as the other four spots, Louisville can't seem to find the answer.

The offensive line woes can partially explain why Louisville can't run the ball, either. It also doesn't help that both Brown and Watson are dealing with nagging lower body injuries - which doesn't exactly bode well if the overwhelming majority of your job is to, you know, run. Put it all together, and that's why the Cardinals' 115.0 rushing yards per game is just 111th in the nation.

If you can't run the ball, then you have to throw it a lot more. Given Moss' inconsistent nature, the more you throw the ball, the more you're going to wind up spinning the wheel and hitting bankrupt. Moss is the kind of player where a great ground game compliments him. Since they can't run it, that allows the defense to sell out for the pass a lot more. It all boils down to complimentary football, and Louisville isn't able to play that right now.

However, that's not been Louisville's only issue with their offense, and it's time to have a conversation that, quite frankly, some fans aren't ready for. Let me preface what I'm about to say with this: Jeff Brohm, overall, is still a very good head coach, and Louisville is fortunate to have him.

That being said, so far this season, Brohm's efforts as a head coach have left a lot to be desired.

In more than one game this year, opposing coaches have made in-game adjustments well before Brohm himself has done it. The actual play calling itself has been extremely streaky, as has the situational play calling/awareness. The end-of-half game and clock management has been a mystery all season long.

Don't believe me? Well, here are a few postgame quotes from Brohm so far this year:

I needed to do a better job against the blitz package that we saw today. It was a heavy, extensive blitz package of bringing the heat. Hadn't seen a whole lot on video, but they were going to play feast or famine, and they got to us quite a bit. Those are things that I and we got to learn from on offense, and find a better package for that.Jeff Brohm after the James Madison game

They came in with a good plan, a little bit different than what we've seen. They made some adjustments, and we did on both sides of the ball (as well).Jeff Brohm after the Pitt game

“It was a disappointing day. When you give them 14 points on offense, it is really disturbing and disappointing. So that falls on me. ... There are a lot of things we need to do so, obviously, I am not doing a good job of practicing those things for them to show up."Jeff Brohm after the Virginia game.

That is not once, not twice, but three times that Brohm has openly admitted that, in one form or another, he was out-coached. Whether it be for a lack of timely in-game adjustments or expecting the opposing defense to come out in one look only for them to do something completely different. One could interpret these quotes as him falling on the sword for his players, but at the end of the day, he is responsible for putting them in a position to succeed.

Like I said earlier, Brohm is still a very good coach, and this year will more than likely be an anomaly in what will otherwise be a very successful coaching career. But for some reason, whether it be due to internal or external factors, he has not put together a great coaching job so far this season.

I say all that to say that there is not a simple answer to the question "what's wrong with the offense?" Between the play on the field, the decision making on the sideline and the preparation efforts during the week, there a lot of factors at work here as to why it's not clicking like we thought, and it's likely not an easy or quick fix.

Fortunately, Louisville is still 4-1, and they are heading into their final bye week of the season before a primetime tilt with Miami in Coral Gables. Brohm, his staff, and every offensive player except for Chris Bell needs to do a lot of soul searching during this time if the Cardinals are able to fully realize their potential.