Where Did Virginia Tech Clock In In Bill Connelly's Initial 2026 SP+ Rankings?

First off, here's an explanation of SP+ directly from Connelly.

"As a reminder, SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.

I now base preseason projections on four primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you're pretty far down the projections road.

2. Recent history. Using a chunk of information from previous seasons gives us a good measure of overall program health, even in this era of wild swings in quality. It still stands to reason that a team that has played well for only one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good -- and has likely spent bigger on its roster -- for years on end (and vice versa).

3. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by both the past few years of recruiting rankings and the quality of incoming transfers, though as you might have predicted while watching Indiana surge to the national title last season, this doesn't carry nearly the weight that it once did. A decade or so ago, this piece made up about 20-25% of the preseason formula. Now it's about 1-2%. ...

4. Coaching change effects. I referenced this in a recent piece. As it turns out, comparing last season's output to a 20-year SP+ baseline gives us a pretty good idea of what's going to happen when a team changes coaches (and/or coordinators). If you underachieved to an historic degree, like Oklahoma State did last season, a change is likely to bring with it significant improvement. (That's doubly true when the new coach brings loads of high-productivity transfers with him, as OSU's Eric Morris did.) And on the flip side, if you overachieved significantly against history, as Morris' North Texas team did in 2025, you're likely to take a pretty significant hit when the head coach leaves (along with most of his star talent)."

With that in mind, Virginia Tech ranked surprisingly high. The Hokies came in at No. 32 overall with an SP+ rating of 9.4. Tech's offense currently ranks No. 34 in the FBS with a tally of 31.5, while its defense ranks No. 38 with a mark of 21.5. The Hokies' special teams currently clocks in as the lowest, with a -0.2 mark that sits 89th in Division I.

At the time of writing, that 32nd-placed overall ranking slots Virginia Tech in as the fifth team in the ACC, behind Miami (No. 8), Clemson (No. 32), Louisville (No. 27) and SMU (No. 28).

The Hokies' placement comes as a surprise mainly due to the second point in Connelly's explanation for the SP+ rankings. A season ago, Virginia Tech finished 3-9 and started 0-3, firing Brent Pry on Sept. 14 after a 45-26 loss to Old Dominion. The Hokies lost six of their last seven games, with the season finale being a 27-7 loss to archrival Virginia.

However, Virginia Tech welcomed in James Franklin as the team's new head coach on Nov. 17, and immediately, it has shown improvement on the recruiting trail. Twenty-two enter the program from the Class of 2026 high school ranks, including a trio of four stars: offensive tackle Thomas Wilder, linebacker Terry Wiggins and running back Messiah Mickens. Virginia Tech also landed the top kicker in the class in Will Love, brother of longtime Hokies kicker John Love.

Twenty-seven enter the Hokies from the transfer portal, including three four-star recruits: quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (Penn State), tight end Luke Reynolds (Penn State) and wide receiver Que'Sean Brown (Duke).

Virginia Tech's 2026 season begins on Saturday, Sept. 5, when the team takes on VMI in the two schools' first meeting since 1984. In the meantime, the Hokies' spring game will take place on Saturday, April 18 at 3 p.m. ET, and it will be free of charge for all who attend.