Why Florida State-LSU is a must-win for the Tigers

It might seem like Week 1 is too early to declare a game must-win, but that's exactly what Sunday's season opener is for LSU when it squares off against Florida State.

The Tigers and Seminoles are contenders for the College Football Playoff and will have a pathway to the CFP with a loss. However, no team has ever reached the playoff with more than one loss, putting the Week 1 loser on thin ice.

Between the two teams, Florida State would appear best suited to run the table should it lose, although it wouldn't be easy.

The Associated Press preseason No. 8 Seminoles travel to No. 9 Clemson on Sept. 23, but other than that, their schedule doesn't appear daunting.

Florida State's next two games are against Southern Miss and Boston College while its schedule after the Clemson game appears filled with future wins.

A full-strength Florida State won't be an underdog in its other conference games (and maybe not even against Clemson) and its end-of-season out-of-conference games against South Alabama and Florida shouldn't be a major concern, either.

No. 5 LSU, meanwhile, travels to No. 22 Ole Miss on Sept. 30 and No. 4 Alabama on Nov. 4. If it wins those two games, its reward will be a showdown with (likely) either No. 1 Georgia or No. 12 Tennessee in the SEC Championships Game.

If the Tigers fall to the Seminoles in consecutive seasons, should we really expect them to run the table in that SEC gauntlet? 

While not impossible, it's much less likely than Florida State finishing the season with only one loss.

Both teams have the talent to win their respective conferences and are title contenders for good reason.

Quarterbacks Jayden Daniels (LSU) and Jordan Travis (Florida State) were on the short-list of preseason Heisman candidates. Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers could be the next great wideout from WRU, listed on Mel Kiper Jr.'s 2024 NFL Draft big board as the third-best wide receiver in the class and 17th overall prospect.

Seminoles receiver Johnny Wilson is likely to be a major problem all season. His matchup against a reconstructed Tigers secondary could be the individual battle that dictates the outcome of Sunday's game. The 6-foot-7, 237-pound wide receiver was a teammate of Daniels from 2020-21 at Arizona State, and the redshirt junior broke out with 43 receptions, 897 yards (20.9 yards per catch) and five touchdowns last season, his first at Florida State.

LSU transfers Zy Alexander (Southeastern) and Darian "Duce" Chestnut (Syracuse) project to start at cornerback and have 13 career interceptions combined. The Tigers have young talent behind the pair, including Texas A&M transfer Denver Harris, and it might take an army to bring down Wilson.

The Tigers are without Maason Smith for the opener but still have an intimidating front with Mekhi Wingo and Harold Perkins Jr. 

Perkins, in particular, has the potential to take over the game for LSU and his pass rush will be huge in impacting the timing of Travis' attempts.

On Florida State's side, Seminoles edge rusher Jared Verse had nine sacks last season and is Kiper's highest-ranked defensive end and sixth-ranked prospect overall. He, too, could play a major role in who wins.

Games don't get much bigger than LSU-Florida State to start the season. But only if LSU loses will it whittle the field of 2023 title contenders.