Why LSU's Jayden Daniels will stiff-arm pretenders to win Heisman

The Heisman Trophy will be handed out Saturday night, with quarterbacks Jayden Daniels (LSU), Bo Nix (Oregon) and Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) joining wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) in New York as finalists. 

Here's a look at the finalists' worthiness for the most famous trophy in college sports:

Why Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. are Heisman pretenders

This is not meant to discredit the seasons Nix and Penix Jr. had. Both were sensational in leading their teams to the Pac-12 Championship Game, with Penix Jr. and the Huskies earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. 

Nix, a fifth-year player, finished with 4,145 passing yards and 40 touchdown passes to only three interceptions. He also rushed for 228 yards and six touchdowns. Penix Jr., a sixth-year player, threw for 4,218 yards, 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions but was no threat as a rusher (minus-18 yards).

In terms of passing yardage, they were 1-2 in the country. 

However, they played in a conference with some of the country's worst defenses. Seven of the 12 teams in the Pac-12 finished 50th or lower in points against, while six of them (Washington State, Arizona State, California, Colorado, USC and Stanford) finished 85th or lower (of 133 teams). That can certainly help turn a good quarterback into a great quarterback.

If you look at what Nix and Penix Jr. did in the previous stops – Nix in the SEC at Auburn and Penix Jr. in the Big Ten at Indiana – they were very different quarterbacks.

Nix's completion percentage in three seasons at Auburn was 59.4 (74.6 in two seasons at Oregon). Penix's completion percentage in four seasons at Indiana was also 59.4 (65.6 in two seasons at Washington). The move to the defensively challenged Pac-12 saw both quarterbacks significantly improve upon their raw numbers. 

These two clearly had an easier path than the other QB heading to New York. 

Why Jayden Daniels is the favorite

The dual-threat LSU quarterback has a perfect combination of elite numbers (3,812 passing yards, 40 TD passes, 1,142 yards rushing). Plus, he played in the SEC – the best conference in the country – against some of the nation's top defenses. That includes a season-opening non-conference game against Florida State. 

Daniels has similar passing numbers to Nix and Penix Jr. (ranking third in passing yards in the nation) and has the bonus of his rushing numbers. His team went 9-3, but that shouldn't matter. Daniels' raw numbers and the conference in which he played speak volumes.

"No matter how one slices it, Daniels engineered one of the most impressive quarterback seasons in recent memory," Pro Football Focus' Max Chadwick wrote. "Three losses be damned, he’s more than worthy of taking home the Heisman."

History says Marvin Harrison Jr. has slim chance

Harrison Jr. – the top wide receiver in the country the past two seasons – completed another monster year at Ohio State with 67 catches for 1,211 yards and 14 TD catches (plus one TD rushing). As dominant as he was for the Buckeyes, this is simply not an award wide receivers win. Just being a finalist is an accomplishment in itself. 

Dating to 1935, only three wide receivers have won the award – Notre Dame's Tim Brown in 1987, Michigan's Desmond Howard in 1991 and Alabama's DeVonta Smith in 2020 – and it is almost as rare for a WR to even get an invite to the ceremony. 

Only six wide receivers have finished in the top-three of the voting since 1990 and only 11 in the history of the award.  

Fair or not, Harrison won't win the Heisman. Daniels will become the fifth SEC player in the past six years to win the award.

Case closed.