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Northern Illinois Huskies running back Chavon Wright (10) breaks free from the tackle of Maryland Terrapins linebacker Trey Reddick (3) for a first down in the first half at SECU Stadium. Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

Why Mississippi State should be on upset alert against Norther Illinois

Originally posted on Mississippi State Bulldogs on SI
By Taylor Hodges | Last updated Sep 16, 2025 2:00 PM ET

It’s an exciting time for Mississippi State’s football team.

The Bulldogs are 3-0 for the first time since 2018, receiving enough votes in polls to be considered on the cusp of being ranked and they’re playing like a real SEC team.

The light is growing in Starkville. Hopefully, it’s not a train.

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but Mississippi State faces a trap game this week when Northern Illinois rides into town.

And it’s a trap game that should be taken very seriously by the Bulldogs.

There’s no strict definition for what a trap game is, but this one fits most of the requirements. It’s a game against a smaller opponent either right after or before a highly-anticipated, emotional game.

The Huskies are a smaller opponent and next week’s game against No. 15 Tennessee is a highly-anticipated game.

Throw in Northern Illinois’s history of beating some of the biggest names in college football (we’ll get to that shortly) and their ability to do the one thing that almost gave Arizona State a comeback win (i.e., run the ball), this looks dangerous.

Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby knows this. At his Monday press conference he talked about the Huskies and how they’re a dangerous team.

“Over the last four years, they've went into somebody else's house, powerful opponent, and won three of the four games," Lebby said. "They had opportunities to beat NC State. They're throwing it into the end zone last year to go win that game and beat Notre Dame, who gets beat by a touchdown in a national championship game. (They) had opportunities to be on the right side of it versus Maryland a couple weeks ago.”

So, what are the reasons Mississippi State should be on upset alert?

The Historical Reason

Well, for the superstitious readers, there’s this fun little fact:

The Huskies will face Mississippi State 22 years to the date after winning the program’s only game against an SEC team. On September 20, 2003, Northern Illinois beat No. 21 Alabama, 19-16.

What better way to celebrate that anniversary for the Huskies than to do it again? The universe does work in mysterious ways after all.

The Real Reasons

There’s some on the field reasons, too.

Northern Illinois is going to run the ball a lot. In two games, the Huskies have ran the ball 96 times and have thrown only 46 total passes.

They’re also pretty good at running the ball. The Huskies have gained 432 rushing yards and averaged 3.7 yards per game.

Chavon Wright is the leading rusher with 38 runs for 167 yards (4.4 ypc) and one touchdown. Telly Johnson Jr. is second with 31 runs for 153 yards (4.9 ypc) and one touchdown.

They’re going to be a physical team on both sides of the ball and, again, none of this is news to Lebby.

“You see this incredible amount of effort,” Lebby said. “You see this incredible amount of toughness when you watch the tape. We've got to match that, surpass that, to be able to go do what we want in the run game.”

The thing that should really be scary to Mississippi State and its fans is that the Bulldogs have shown an improved ability to stop the run. But it hasn’t been consistent.

Flashback to the second half of the Arizona State game. The Sun Devils were able to run the ball at will.

For the game, the Sun Devils ran the ball 51 times for 251 yards (4.9 ypc). In the second half alone, the Sun Devils had 32 runs for 186 yards (5.8 ypc).