Why the Florida State Game Might Define UVA Football's Entire 2025 Season

4–0 Is There for the Taking

It’s not just another conference game— this Friday night lights showdown might be the one that defines Virginia’s entire season.

The Cavaliers open 2025 with the softest first month of any Power Four team. Coastal Carolina (FPI No. 100), Stanford (No. 64), Washington State (No. 98), and Wake Forest (No. 89) make up a front-loaded schedule where Virginia should be favored. Wake hasn’t been the same since Dave Clawson lost his quarterback room. Stanford was in the bottom 10 nationally in scoring defense last year, averaging 37.7 PPG. Washington State lost more than a dozen contributors, including many starters to the portal. If Chandler Morris is healthy and the offensive line isn’t a liability, this team can be 4–0 without playing perfect football.

That sets the table for the one that matters—Florida State coming to Charlottesville with a national TV audience and ACC positioning on the line.

Florida State Isn’t What It Used to Be

Don’t let the name fool you. This isn’t the FSU team of 2023. This is a roster coming off a 2–10 collapse, following a staff overhaul that included the replacement of both offensive and defensive coordinators, and significant losses in the secondary. The Seminoles return just few starters in the defensive backfield such as DBs Shyheim Brown and KJ Kirkland and are relying on a group of unproven transfers to hold things together. Their portal class includes talent, but their production is uncertain.

And it’s not just that the defense is down. The offense and quarterback situation is still fluid. Florida State opens with Alabama, then faces East Texas A&M and Kent State. If they lose to Bama, there’s real pressure on them to come to Charlottesville and avoid a 2–2 start. They’ll be coming in on a short week, under the lights, in a game Virginia has to treat like a bowl elimination.

The Matchup: Virginia’s WRs Could Take Over

Jayden Thomas, Jahmal Edrine, and Cam Ross give Virginia its most balanced and experienced receiving corps in years. Edrine started 10 games for Purdue last season and led the Boilermakers in yards per catch, establishing himself as their top downfield threat. Ross arrives from JMU with 151 career receptions, 1,799 yards, and a 94-yard kick return touchdown on his resume. Thomas, a former starter at Notre Dame, brings Power Five pedigree and averaged over 14 yards per catch in 2024 despite battling injuries.

If the offensive line holds up, this is a matchup Virginia should exploit. Florida State’s secondary is thin on experience, returning just one starter from last year and leaning on transfers without proven FBS production. Their former CB1, Renardo Green—an All-ACC performer—is now in the NFL with the 49ers.

Add in 6'5", 245-pound tight end Dakota Twitty, a former wide receiver with vertical skills, and UVA has legitimate size and separation mismatches across the field. This could be the best passing attack Virginia puts on display all season—and it needs to show up in primetime.

Most Important Game of the Season?

Tony Elliott is 11–23 through three seasons at Virginia. He hasn’t reached a bowl game, and his signature win remains a 2023 road upset over a North Carolina team that finished 3–9. This offseason was his reset button: 31 transfer additions, including a veteran quarterback in Chandler Morris, four new offensive linemen, and three proven receivers from Notre Dame, Purdue, and JMU.

Virginia’s 2025 schedule is ranked 83rd nationally by ESPN’s FPI—easiest in the Power Four. The path is laid out. It’s bowl-or-bust. And more than that, it’s now or never.

If UVA knocks off Florida State, they start 5–0 for the first time since 2004. That changes everything—the outlook on the season, the perception of Elliott’s tenure, and the expectations heading into a pivotal trip to Louisville. But if they lose? They enter that game as underdogs, and the momentum built through September starts to unravel. The hype risks turning hollow. And the season starts to drift toward a familiar, disappointing script.

Florida State isn’t the powerhouse it was two years ago. They’re vulnerable—young in the secondary, inconsistent on offense, and coming off a 2–10 collapse. But if Virginia wants to be more than a feel-good rebuild story, this is the night to prove it.

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