College lacrosse odds and picks: Best bets for NCAA men’s lacrosse tournament opening round 

No. 6 Virginia vs. St. Joe’s

Odds via FanDuel

Virginia hosts St. Joe’s in the opening round and is a 4.5-point favorite. With Georgetown and Maryland slight underdogs in their games, Virginia is the lowest-seeded team favored to make it to the quarterfinals. However, St. Joe’s has gone 12-0 since making Tommy Gross its starting goaltender and enters the NCAA Tournament with upset potential

I’m not as down on the Cavaliers chances to make a run as most. This offense can hang with any team in the nation and another Final Four appearance is possible. Instead, I’ll fade a Virginia defense that has looked pedestrian against highly efficient offenses.

We already know Virginia’s offense is one of the best in the nation, ranking fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency during competitive situations. Yet, St. Joe’s offense ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency and also plays at the 25th-fastest pace during competitive situations, according to Lacrosse Reference.

Meanwhile, UVA’s defense ranks just 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has often looked lost off-ball, albeit against high-ranking ACC offenses. I think the Hawks have the offensive personnel necessary to give the Cavaliers trouble on the defensive end and Virginia goaltender Matthew Nunes has been streaky. St. Joe’s has improved on defense as the season has progressed, but still ranks 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency and has allowed the third-quickest first shot per possession on average.

This matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair. Bet this total to go Over 25.5 at -122 on FanDuel.

I’m also targeting two player props in this game. The first is Virginia attackman Connor Shellenberger’s shots on goal prop of 3.5.

Shellenberger will have a big impact on this game and I think he’ll test Gross early. He’s surpassed this mark in eight of 15 games and at -120 on DraftKings, we're getting a good price. Bet him to go Over 3.5 shots on goal.

I’m also targeting St. Joe’s attackman Levi Anderson’s points prop of 3.5. Anderson has recorded four or more points in 8 of 15 games this season, including five of the past six games. He’s often the straw that stirs the drink for the Hawks and also has the size to compete with Virginia’s towering defense. Bet Anderson to record four or more points at -120 on DraftKings.

Picks: Over 25.5, Connor Shellenberger Over 3.5 SOG, Levi Anderson Over 3.5 Points

No. 2 Duke vs. Utah

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Duke Blue Devils host Utah for their opening round game and are as high as 7.5-point favorites. This game also features the highest total — 27.5.

Instead of betting Duke to cover this high of a spread, I recommend betting Duke to win the championship at +500 on BetMGM. 

In my opinion, their path to the title game is the easiest of the top four seeds.

Despite losing big to the Irish in the ACC championship, the Blue Devils' offense has looked better since getting Andrew McAdorey involved more behind the cage. They also rested faceoff specialist Jake Naso during the ACC tournament, so with him back in the lineup, I’m confident in Duke’s ability to beat almost anybody.

Duke would also match up well with both Maryland or Princeton and would become the overwhelming favorite if Notre Dame were to lose in the quarterfinals. At these odds, there’s still value in betting the Blue Devils to win it all.

I’m also targeting three player props in this game.

The first prop I’m betting is Dyson Williams to go Over 2.5 goals. Williams has scored four or more goals in 11 of 17 games this season and averages 4.7 shots on goal per game. I like his matchup against a Utah defense that has the 61st-worst opposing shots on goal percentage (66.2%). Bet Williams to record a hat trick at -150 on DraftKings.

I’m also betting Utah attackman Jordan Hyde to stay Under 2.5 goals. Hyde has stayed under this mark in 11 of 16 games. Furthermore, Duke ranks fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference and Hyde has failed to record three or more goals against every top-20 defense he’s faced this season (Air Force, Denver, Ohio State, Syracuse). Bet Hyde to stay Under 2.5 goals at -155 on DraftKings.

Picks: Duke to Win Championship, Dyson Williams Over 2.5 Goals, Jordan Hyde Under 2.5 Goals

No. 5 Denver vs. Michigan

Odds via FanDuel

Arguably the most intriguing matchup is between the Denver Pioneers and Michigan Wolverines. This game is close to a pick 'em and while I lean Denver, I’ll officially target the total of 22.5.

Denver hasn’t played in many high-scoring games, but this game will likely play out like its battles with Yale, Cornell and Johns Hopkins earlier this season. With both teams’ usual faceoff advantages neutralized, I expect this game to be back and forth.

Denver has enjoyed a possession advantage in the majority of its games, thanks to faceoff specialist Alec Stathakis, who has posted an adjusted faceoff percentage of 63% during competitive situations, according to Lacrosse Reference. Denver has posted an adjusted faceoff percentage under this mark just four times this season and every game saw 24 goals or more scored with an average total of 25.75.

Stathakis and Michigan’s faceoff specialist, Justin Wietfeldt, should have a tight battle at the faceoff and I’d be shocked if we see one team gain a significant possession advantage.

Unlike Denver’s Bill Tierney era of playing tight, compact defense, the Pioneers have played aggressive on defense this season and that should lead to goals, whether it’s in transition for Denver or quality looks for a Michigan offense that moves the ball tremendously well.

On the other end, Denver’s offense uses pick plays often and Michigan has struggled to defend that type of offensive strategy this season, despite playing well in recent weeks. The Wolverines have also been prone to giving transition opportunities on defense and won’t have the benefit of playing a team they have familiarity with.

Bet this game to go Over 22.5 at +100 on FanDuel.

In addition to the total, I’m also targeting two player props.

Michigan’s all-time leading scorer, Michael Boehm, has a points prop of 3.5 and I think there’s a good chance he goes over. Boehm has had four or more points in 10 of 16 games this season, making -114 on FanDuel a good price to bet him to go over this mark. I’m also targeting his linemate Ryan Cohen’s goals prop of 1.5. Cohen has had a multi-goal performance in 11 of 16 games this season, so -120 is an excellent price to bet him to score two or more goals.

Picks: Over 22.5, Michael Boehm Over 3.5 Points, Ryan Cohen Over 1.5 Goals

No. 7 Maryland vs. Princeton

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Princeton opened at +1.5 at -110 odds, but that price was quickly sniped and the line flipped. With the exception of Penn, Princeton’s recent win streak has come against weak defenses and Maryland will be the best defense it has faced since losing to Duke on March 3.

Princeton’s faceoff play has also been a big advantage of late, but won’t be something it can lean on against Maryland. When Maryland secured a 13-7 win over Princeton in February, it dominated time of possession, winning 87.5% of faceoffs and controlling the ball for 63% of the game. While we might not see that level of possession dominance, it could allow Maryland to keep this close and even win outright.

Initially, I was looking at the total of 22.5, but feel like the line is right on the money. The last game between these two elite defenses featured just 20 total goals, but the pace was a bit quicker than we’re used to seeing from Maryland.

Instead, I’m targeting Princeton attackman Nick Kabiri’s points prop of 3.5. Kabiri has produced immediately despite being a freshman, averaging 3.6 points per game. He’s gone over this mark in 10 of 15 games this season and has had four points or more in four of five games against defenses that rank in the top 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference.

One of those games was against Maryland, where he had four points and recorded six shots on goal despite Princeton possessing the ball for just 37% of the game. Kabiri benefited from Maryland's extra focus on Coulter Mackesy in its past game and I expect him to have a similar output Saturday. 

Bet Kabiri to go Over 3.5 points at -115 on DraftKings.

Pick: Nick Kabiri Over 3.5 Points