‘One Battle After Another’ Set To Lose $100 Million; Are Huge Hollywood Budgets A Thing Of The Past?

The red carpet is rolled out, the stars are smiling, and the popcorn is popping. A new blockbuster, like One Battle After Another has arrived with a nine-figure budget and a marketing campaign to match. But behind the glitz and glamour, a troubling trend is emerging in Hollywood. An increasing number of these high-stakes films are failing to make a profit, forcing studios to confront a difficult question: is the era of the mega-budget blockbuster coming to an end?

One Battle After Another: The High Cost of a Theatrical Flop

Making a movie is expensive, but the costs for today’s tentpole films have reached astronomical levels. It’s not just the production budget; studios often spend an additional $50 million to $100 million or more on global marketing. A general rule of thumb is that a film needs to make at least 2.5 times its production budget at the box office just to break even, as theaters typically keep about 50% of the ticket sales. When a movie carries a budget of $150 million or more, the path to profitability becomes incredibly narrow.

A prime example is Paul Thomas Anderson’s epic One Battle After Another. Despite starring Leonardo DiCaprio and earning rave reviews, the film is facing a significant financial shortfall. With a production budget exceeding $130 million and another $70 million for promotion, the film needed to gross well over $300 million globally to turn a profit. While its $140 million take is impressive for an original, R-rated drama, it’s projected to lose around $100 million from its theatrical run.

This isn’t an isolated incident. Other highly anticipated films aimed at adult audiences, such as A24’s sports biopic The Smashing Machine starring Dwayne Johnson and the Channing Tatum dramedy Roofman, have also stumbled at the box office. While Roofman had a modest $19 million budget that minimized its losses, The Smashing Machine carried a $50 million price tag—a huge gamble for an independent studio that ultimately didn’t pay off.

Why Aren’t Audiences Showing Up?

Several factors are contributing to this trend of blockbuster underperformance. The modern moviegoer has been conditioned by a new set of expectations and viewing habits, many of which were accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Rise of Streaming and Shorter Theatrical Windows

During the pandemic, studios relied on streaming services to release their films. This trained audiences to expect major motion pictures to be available in their homes just weeks after their theatrical debut. The traditional 90-day exclusive theatrical window has shrunk dramatically, sometimes to as little as 17 to 45 days. As a result, many potential moviegoers are simply opting to wait. Unless a film is a true “event” with massive spectacle, there’s less urgency to see it on the big screen.

As Fandango’s box office analyst Shawn Robbins notes, “People have come to expect these movies to be available in the home much sooner than they used to be.” This mindset particularly affects dramas and mid-budget films that don’t rely on the kind of large-format spectacle that demands a theatrical viewing.

The Audience’s Appetite for the Familiar

In the post-pandemic era, audiences are more selective about which movies they’ll pay theater prices for. They tend to gravitate toward known quantities: sequels, prequels, and established franchises. Original, star-driven dramas, even those with Oscar buzz, are a much riskier proposition. Consumers want to be sure their money will be well spent, and the familiarity of a sequel offers a perceived guarantee of entertainment that an original story does not.

The Future: A Shift Toward Leaner Budgets?

The consistent failure of big-budget originals is forcing a reckoning in Hollywood. Studios are beginning to question the sustainability of a model that requires a film to be a record-breaking global hit just to break even. This could lead to a significant industry shift toward more financially responsible filmmaking.

The Mid-Budget Movie’s Return

For years, major studios have largely abandoned the mid-budget film—the $20 million to $70 million projects that were once a Hollywood staple. This created a void that indie studios like A24 tried to fill. However, as A24’s experience with The Smashing Machine shows, even they are not immune to the risks of inflated budgets. The failure of these pricier indie films may signal that the sweet spot is even lower.

We may see a resurgence of films made with leaner budgets, where a modest box office success can still lead to profitability. This model reduces risk and allows for more creative storytelling, as not every film has to be a four-quadrant global blockbuster.

Re-evaluating Star Power

The performance of films like One Battle After Another also raises questions about the modern definition of star power. While a name like Leonardo DiCaprio can still generate interest and critical acclaim, it may no longer be enough to guarantee a massive opening weekend for an original film. Studios may become more hesitant to approve enormous budgets based on the attachment of a single star, especially when talent deals include first-dollar gross participation, which allows the star to take a percentage of box office revenue before the studio recoups its costs.

A Necessary Correction for a Healthier Industry

This trend may seem like a negative development, but it could ultimately lead to a healthier and more diverse film industry. A move away from a “blockbuster-or-bust” mentality would create more opportunities for original stories and new voices. It would force studios to be more creative and efficient, focusing on strong scripts and clear vision rather than simply throwing money at a project.

While the era of the mega-blockbuster is far from over, the recent string of high-profile financial disappointments is a clear warning sign. The studios that will thrive in the coming years will be those that can adapt, manage risk, and understand that in today’s cinematic landscape, a good movie is not always defined by a big budget.