F1 odds: 2 final predictions and picks for Monaco Grand Prix Sun. 5/26

Check out the latest F1 odds and with Jono Rose's expert picks & predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix on Sunday morning, May 26.

Qualifying for the F1 Monaco Grand Prix took place under clear skies and sunshine, which is a welcome sight after drivers had to battle the rain and elements in Monte Carlo the past two races here.

The most recent forecast for Sunday’s F1 Monaco Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ABC & ESPN+) calls for sunshine with intermittent clouds and no rain expected.

Charles Leclerc, who has been the fastest car on the grid during FP2 and FP3, continued his dominant weekend by securing pole position for the third time in his career at Monaco. While the Monegasque driver has started on pole position 23 times prior, he has converted only four of those opportunities into race wins; none has come in his home race.

Here are the F1 odds for the F1 outright winner, as of Saturday and via ESPN BET:

• Charles Leclerc: -250
• Oscar Piastri: +550
• Max Verstappen: +950
• Carlos Sainz Jr.: +1200
• Lando Norris: +1200
• George Russell: +4000
• Lewis Hamilton: +4000
• Yuki Tsunoda: +25000
• Alexander Albon: +50000
• Daniel Ricciardo: +100000
• Esteban Ocon: +100000
• Fernando Alonso: +100000
• Kevin Magnussen: +100000
• Lance Stroll: +100000
• Logan Sargeant +100000
• Nico Hulkenberg: +100000
• Pierre Gasly: +100000
• Sergio Perez: +100000
• Valtteri Botas:  +100000
• Zhou Guanyu: +100000

Next to Leclerc on the front row of the starting grid will be Oscar Piastri in just his second season driving a Formula 1 car. Last year, Piastri started P11 and finished P10 at Monaco. He also secured two podium finishes last year toward the end of the season in Japan and Qatar.

In Row 2 on the starting grid, Carlos Sainz will be in P3 and Lando Norris P4; both drivers start behind their teammates for the race. Sainz has finished behind Leclerc, Norris and Max Verstappen for three consecutive races.

Verstappen has had a tough weekend thus far by his standards while fighting the car in all three practice sessions. He will start down in P6 behind George Russell.

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F1 Odds – Monaco Grand Prix Predictions, Picks 

Ferrari Wire-to-Wire Win

Qualifying position has always been important in racing, but no more so than at Circuit de Monaco to determine who will go on and win the race. The track is known for being very difficult to overtake. Therefore, staying ahead of the pack once the lights go out is less of a daunting task with the narrow track helping in the defense of pursuing cars.

Is the third time around the charm for Leclerc, or will he once again be wondering what will it take for him to win at his home grand prix? Back in 2021, starting on pole, Leclerc was out on a recon lap prior to the race when a failure on the car was detected. He was ultimately unable to start the race due to a cracked left-rear driveshaft hub. Then in 2022, again from pole position, Ferrari failed to get the strategy right for Leclerc when going from the wet tires to the slicks early on in the race.

This year, Leclerc has once again put himself in position to get over the hump and win in Monaco. The hometown driver saved his best flying lap for his last one of the sessions in qualifying. Leclerc was down in P5 for Q1 and P4 for Q2 before posting a lap time of 1:10.270, which was 0.154 seconds faster than Piastri in Q3. A

As an aside, Charles went fastest in FP2 with a 1:11.278 and fastest in FP3 with a 1:11.369 fastest lap time.

While his odds were only -140 pre-qualifying to win the race, I still think there is good value in taking Leclerc to win this year at Monaco. In the most recent 25 F1 Monaco Grand Prix races, 14 winners have done so from pole position. If laying that much juice is not to your liking, I would suggest looking at the “Straight Forecast” section on bet365 and pair Leclerc with another top driver of your choice to finish in second place.

The Pick: Race Winner – Charles Leclerc (2.5 units, -225 at Caesars Sportsbook)

McLaren Fastest Lap

Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have combined for only one fastest lap of the race this season through seven rounds, with Piastri carving up the track in Miami after dropping all the way to the back of the field. That being said, fastest laps are not a “sticky stat” and can be a bit random from week to week.

Rather than pick one of the two McLaren drivers as a long shot (according to the odds) to drive the fastest lap of the race, I love the value of getting 2-for-1 here. Individually, their odds are longer than +400, but I cannot separate which driver I like over the other.

What I do love is the McLaren on the mediums and hard compound tires for the race, above and beyond what they accomplish on the softs during qualifying. The Monaco GP looks to be a one-stop race, with the McLaren pair likely to start on the mediums and switch to the hard compound tires later in the race. This track is set up perfectly for the McLaren duo to manage their tires to the end of the race and still be strong enough to set the fastest lap when their car is at its lightest weight.

The Pick: Car to Set the Fastest Lap – McLaren (1 unit, +400 on DraftKings)

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