Formula 1 best bets: Who will hit the jackpot at the Monaco Grand Prix?

The Monaco Grand Prix is a street circuit, a two-mile loop through the hilly, twisty public roads of the principality. It's known for its tight corners — called "slow" corners in F1 because they scrub speed rather than increase it, not because anyone's actually driving them slowly —and its narrow track. Three-time world champion Nelson Piquet likened the Monaco Grand Prix to "riding a bicycle around your living room," but current RB driver Daniel Ricciardo took the metaphor a step further. "I'd say it's now like riding a dirt bike in a supermarket," he laughed. "It's crazy."

This weekend, F1's 20 drivers will whip their vehicles around the circuit's 19 corners at speeds exceeding 150 miles per hour. The ideal racing line will take them within millimeters of the circuit's concrete barriers on each of the Grand Prix's 78 laps. If they want to make up places during the race, they'll have to find a way to pass similarly fast and aggressive cars somewhere along the way, and they'll have to do so without brushing the walls or losing focus for a second. Don't let the glitz and the glamour of the setting fool you: the Monaco Grand Prix is the ultimate test of endurance, skill and consistency.

Who will pass that test in 2024? Here are the bets we're eyeing as the Monaco Grand Prix draws nearer:

Qualifying. Monaco's narrowness makes it one of the most difficult tracks on the F1 calendar for overtaking — and that means qualifying matters more here than it does anywhere else. (Many F1 pundits joke that qualifying is the actual race in Monaco and that the Grand Prix itself is just a glorified parade.) Who has the goods to put his car on pole in these crazy conditions? World champion Max Verstappen is the obvious choice at +125, but we're going with our hearts and backing Ferrari's Charles Leclerc instead at +225. Leclerc is the sole Monégasque driver on the grid and will be racing on the roads he grew up on; the circuit passes by his elementary school and various other landmarks from his childhood. He's never won his home Grand Prix. With Ferrari looking strong on corner-heavy tracks, he'll be hungry to get it done this year.

Points finish. Haas has quietly pulled together a strong 2024 season after firing charismatic team principal Guenther Steiner and focusing on technical strength. The Haas car lacks race pace but performs brilliantly in qualifying, and that's been enough to push it up into the points a few times this season. With overtakes being as difficult as they are in Monaco, we think a Haas car could easily sneak into the top 10. We've got our eyes on qualifying maestro Nico Hulkenberg in particular at +162. Other outside candidates? Alpine's Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly , both available at +150. The Alpine car has struggled this season but most of that struggle has been from its lack of straight-line speed — something that won't matter as much in cagey, twisty Monaco. Ocon and Gasly both love Monaco and have performed well there in past seasons.

First constructor retirement. Monaco's difficulty means crashes — and retirements — are likely. But which team is likely to lose a car first? We're going against the grain here and opting for Aston Martin at +800.  Why? Two reasons. First, the team looked utterly unable to manage its technical upgrades last weekend in Imola, leading to Fernando Alonso's worst finish of all time. Second, Lance Stroll has struggled in the margins this season, making small mistakes that caused big accidents. If you're struggling with technical reliability and on-the-edge decision making, Monaco is simply not the track for you. We'll be watching the Astons through our fingers this weekend.