Max Verstappen predicts Mercedes 'will be in the lead' in 2026

Verstappen anticipates Mercedes advantage “especially when it comes to the engine”

Until Red Bull’s recent resurgence, it was seen as a foregone conclusion that McLaren would claim both world titles relatively early in the season. Even with the RB21 experiencing a second wind, the odds are still very much against Verstappen’s favour.

In this context, with McLaren clinching the constructors title with six rounds left, there has already been extensive discussion about the 2026 regulations.

Before every new season, there is always some degree of speculation about how the teams will perform. Given the nature of the incoming changes to the aerodynamic and engine rules, next year presents an even bigger unknown – creating the potential for upsets across the field.

The established pecking order could change, with Red Bull in particular at risk. The Austrian outfit will debut their own power units starting in 2026, a process requiring immense investment into personnel and infrastructure.

Although the team insist they are satisfied with the work behind the scenes, next season is still very much a step into the unknown. It is a very different story for the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari and Honda, who are all established engine manufacturers.

Focusing on Mercedes, the Silver Arrows have been described as favourites for the 2026 regulations for some time – at least from an engine perspective. Williams pairing Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz have expressed a clear confidence in the power unit department at Brixworth.

Max Verstappen echoes this sentiment, explaining why Mercedes are favourites heading into next season:

“Next year will not be easy, with our own engine, of course,” nextgen-auto quotes him as saying.

“It’s a new risk for Red Bull. But they also took that risk when they entered Formula 1, and they didn’t do badly…

“I think Mercedes will be in the lead [in 2026]. They’re still there and strong, they’re  atop company. So I think they’ll be in the lead, especially when it comes to the engine.

“We’re really giving it our all. I hope we’ll be close, but of course I don’t know.”

Red Bull must rise to the challenge

Throughout the late 2010s, Red Bull were often limited by their status as a customer team. The Renault engine was a clear weakness, losing vital tenths to Mercedes and cementing the supremacy of Toto Wolff’s team.

Their agreement with Honda changed the equation, granting Red Bull complete control over their development – thanks to their exclusive engine supplier. When the Japanese manufacturer hesitated on committing to the 2026 regulations, it forced Red Bull into a big decision.

Despite the risk, it was decided that producing their own engine was a worthwhile investment – as opposed to putting so much trust in another engine supplier.

In the long-term, Red Bull could benefit from transitioning into a manufacturer team. The question, however, is how smooth this process will be. Next year will be the first indication of how much ground Laurent Mekies’ personnel must overturn to catch the more long-standing manufacturers.

Keeping Verstappen beyond 2026 is contingent on Red Bull delivering a strong package, so the team cannot afford major blips. Of course, the Dutchman is aware that Mercedes have obvious advantages. In this sense, the expectation is not for Red Bull Powertrains to set the standard immediately.

Instead, a more plausible goal is producing an engine competitive enough that their aerodynamic department has something to work with. Considering the possibilities offered by the new regulations, Red Bull should not be discounted from producing a few surprises.