3 Takeaways from Pac-12/Mountain West Mediation Talks

Yesterday, it was widely reported that the Pac-12 and Mountain West mediation talks failed to reach a settlement before their July 15th deadline, and that the case will go to court in September.

What does this mean for the future of the two conferences? What should fans glean from this news? Here are 3 takeaways from the end of mediation talks.

1. A September trial benefits both parties

It was no secret that the Mountain West needed money; the league’s broadcasting revenue pales in comparison to other conferences, including the new Pac-12.

Without a lucrative media rights deal in place, the Mountain West lost 6 member schools to the Pac-12 last Fall, and only the promise of the six members' exit fees kept UNLV and Air Force from abandoning ship. Every day that those exit fees are held up in court is a day where those schools remain unpaid and unsatisfied with the Mountain West.

For the Pac-12, a September trial offers the coming relief of closure. Finally they can put this ugly chapter behind them and focus on what's next: securing additional broadcast partners, and potentially expanding its membership.

2. Grand Canyon University got in the way of a settlement

While both sides had clear incentive to settle, the Pac-12's motivations to make a deal took a nosedive last week after the Mountain West offered full membership to Grand Canyon University a year earlier than planned.

While Grand Canyon undoubtedly strengthens the Mountain West's portfolio in men's basketball, baseball, and other sports, the departing 6 Mountain West members see one clear problem: logistics. Conference scheduling has taken months to plan out, and now those plans need to be scrapped to accommodate a new member, with just months until college basketball season. Without a schedule, it is difficult for programs to sell season tickets, a significant source of revenue.

In adding Grand Canyon, the Mountain West improved its long term stock, but drew the ire of its departing 6 members, who have substantial influence in the new Pac-12. Any hopes of a settlement went out the window when GCU signed on the dotted line.

3. If the Pac-12 wins, the Mountain West might collapse

As stated earlier, the Mountain West held firm by making a promise to UNLV and Air Force: stay, and you will receive a substantial share of the exit fees owed by Boise State, Fresno State, and the other departing Mountain West schools.

If this case results in a reduction (or elimination) of those fees, what is stopping UNLV or Air Force from leaving the Mountain West?

When UNLV signed the new Mountain West grant of rights this Spring, they earned the right to leave for a power four conference (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC) without penalty. They would incur no exit fees. Without the Mountain West's promised windfall, a partial share from a power four conference might entice them to leave. If that happens, the value of the Mountain West's media rights takes an ugly turn.

Mountain West members San Jose State reside in the Bay Area media market - one of the nation's largest - but the Spartans are dwarfed by Cal Berkley, Stanford, and a legion of smaller Bay Area schools competing for attention. New members UC Davis reside in the Sacramento/Davis market, 20th in America, but they will stay in the FCS Big Sky Conference for football. Compared to the Pac-12, the Mountain West is top-heavy. Without UNLV's presence, the Mountain West media rights valuation doesn't justify the kind of money necessary to fund competitive Division I FBS football.