49ers draft debate: A revised judgement on Kaelon Black

If you read this article, or this one in particular, you know I did not like the Kaelon Black selection in the third round. He was analyst Mel Kiper's 12th-best running back in a class that was not strong at that position.

On the other hand, head coach Kyle Shanahan said he and general manager John Lynch graded Black the second-best back in the draft. Considering Shanahan and Lynch's misfires on backs taken in the third round, that is questionable.

However, draft classes are ultimately judged by one thing: whether the team drafted good players.

Here is Kiper's evaluation before the draft. He gives Black a 5th-7th round value but says he is someone "you know is going to help your football team."

The qualities Black possesses that Kiper specifically identifies are: "Tough, breaks tackles, moves forward."

The ability to keep going forward is one thing I have always noted about the good backs in the NFL. If you look at Black's highlight reels on YouTube, the problem with judging him fairly is that the Indiana offensive line opened holes so wide that anyone could accelerate through them. I want to see what a running back does after contact. On a few of those plays on the reels, Black did indeed keep pushing the pile.

Black did not lose a fumble, and Kiper says San Francisco's new running back "loves football." That is important because it is a key feature of the exceptional 49ers culture.

Black is also universally cited as the best back in pass protection in the draft, and that is also one of the most important skills in Shanahan's offense.

So with these judgments in hand, the only real criticism is the round in which he was selected. In that regard, I do not disagree. I do believe that Black would have lasted to the fourth round. Probably the fifth, but at least the fourth. And if Shanahan and Lynch felt that strongly about him, then, just like with new receiver De'Zhuan Stribling, who was projected to go late second, you don't "get cute" (Shanahan's phrase) and potentially miss out on him.

But in the third round, you need to take players you believe have a chance to start. At that point, the 49ers had addressed the needs at wide receiver and edge rusher, but they still had holes in every spot on the offensive line, at safety, and at depth at corner.

When San Francisco picked, there were at least two good offensive tackles and two good guards still available. And if the 49ers brass wanted to take a risk, cornerback Jermod McCoy, who has first-round talent but is coming off a knee injury, was available, and they could have gone that route. Although I am glad they did not. The 49ers do not need to be drafting injured players. They have had enough problems in that area in recent seasons.

Running back was not a need. It is not even clear that a backup running back is a need. Jordan James looked solid in the little bit he got to play last year.

But Black is apparently a solid player, and here is the potential revision in my judgment. Based on what I have read and heard, I would consider the fourth round reasonable, but the team's second fourth-round pick. The 49ers would still get defensive tackle Gracen Halton. Still, in the third round, one of those offensive tackles or guards (Iowa guard Gennings Dunker, for instance) who are better than the tackle-turned-to-guard Carver Willis—whom the team drafted in the fourth round—might have been a better option.

Shanahan and Lynch expect Willis to compete for the left guard spot, and, considering the competition at that position includes last year's seventh-round pick Connor Colby, they admit that spot is a need—big need. A running back is not in that category.

So it comes down to this: will Kaelon Black end up being San Francisco's RB2? If so, and if he indeed lowers starter Christian McCaffrey's touches and performs well, then it would be a solid pick. If he ends up being the RB3 or below, it is a terrible pick. Even if he ends up being a good special teamer, it is a bad, bad pick. You don't draft good special teamers in the third round.

But we won't have the answers to those questions until training camp, and even then, probably not until toward the end of camp. So I am now willing to shift my call to a "slight reach but good pick" if those circumstances come to fruition.

As a 49ers fan, I hope that is the case. All we care about is having a better team this year. Time will tell.