All signs point to Dallas

Our second November weekend seems like a great time to find some gems on the gridiron, both professional and college. While all games matter, importance is growing more and more paramount with each passing week. 

Fading the Bucs with a bet on Seattle +2.5

We haven't seen a thing from the Buccaneers that should suggest they deserve to be 2.5-point favorites over a 6-3 team like the Seahawks. Now yes, this is a sentence we didn't think we'd be typing in August, but it's the fact of the matter. Seattle is 6-3 ATS thanks to an efficient offense led by Kenneth Walker and Geno Smith, while the Buccaneers are 2-6-1 ATS and continuously underperform. Tampa Bay's run defense isn't the same stout unit as it has been in years past; PFF has the Bucs graded 20th in the NFL at slowing down the run. For all intents and purposes, this is a neutral-site game as the early morning London game. Without a home-field advantage, and with an offense that continues to slog through games, we prefer taking the points with Seattle here.

Take the better team: The case for Dallas -4.5

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to be done already. At 3-6 and losers of five straight games, we haven't seen much from this team to suggest a turnaround is in the cards. Green Bay is 3-6 ATS and mustered only nine points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week in Detroit. Now, why should we expect a different outcome against the Cowboys, arguably the most complete defense in football? Dallas is off its bye and ready to secure a playoff spot in the NFC. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS and just the better football team; 4.5 points feels extremely reasonable. They should cruise here. 

Backing the Horned Frogs as 7-point dogs

We can admit there's some narrative chasing here. There's always a desire for some fresh energy at the top of the College Football Playoff field, and that honor is currently bestowed on TCU. The undefeated Horned Frogs are currently No. 4 in the CFP rankings and, despite not losing a game, find themselves as over a touchdown underdog to the 6-3 Texas Longhorns. We understand the reasoning a bit. TCU has been trailing in some of its recent Big 12 games while Texas has won three of four, but these teams have each picked up wins against each other the past few years. We'd expect a bit more respect for the 9-0 Frogs. This is the marquee matchup of the week and a chance for TCU to solidify its spot as a true CFP team. Give us TCU at +7.5, and sprinkle a bit on the moneyline at +230 while you're at it.

In the news ...

As championship weekend looms, College Football Week 11 is a big one — All weekends on the college gridiron matter at this point. With conference play winding down, every game has significance. While we're not treated to many games between two Top 25 teams, that's hardly an issue. No. 6 Oregon (8-1) is on both the precipice of a Pac-12 championship berth and a spot in the College Football Playoff. A loss to No. 25 Washington would seriously hamper both of those outcomes, making this a massive game for the Ducks. No. 9 Alabama (4-2 in SEC) at No. 11 Ole Miss (4-1) is important for both schools, but for us it's even moreso for the Rebels. Should Ole Miss win over Bama (currently +11.5 underdogs at home), it has a real chance to have a seat in the SEC Championship Game. The Rebels will need some help from LSU, but we still have a few weeks to go. We like Oregon and Ole Miss to take care of business in huge games this weekend.

Clayton Kershaw nearing a new contract with the Dodgers — It was rumored that three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw may enter free agency and look to join a new team for the first time in his career. That appears to not be the case, as the Dodgers ace is expected to re-sign with the team for his 16th season. Los Angeles is the favorite to win the World Series next year at +550 on DraftKings.

UFC 281 Saturday — Fighting enthusiasts have UFC 281 tomorrow night, with the main event a fascinating battle between two of the best fighters in the division. Israel Adesanya is looking to defend his title for the sixth straight time, with many remarking that Alex Pereira is his most worthy challenger yet. We're expecting an aggressive fight, and we can't help but be drawn to Pereira. They've never met in UFC, but Pereira has beaten Adesanya twice before in kickboxing events, defeating him via unanimous decision once and knocking him out in the other instance. UFC is a bit different, but we prefer the value on Pereira winning at +175.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll