American had a great regular season and kept it all going through the Patriot Tournament with a strong three-game run to get here for the first time since 2014.
Mount St. Mary’s is used to being here with five appearances since 2008, but it’s 0-7 all-time. It got hot at the right time with a four-game winning streak to close including the MAAC Tournament Championship.
The winner of this gets its shot at Duke on Friday.
Date: Wednesday, March 19
Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Time: 6:40
TV: truTV
Teams: American (22-12), Mount St. Mary's (22-12)
Region: East
NCAA Tournament Schedule, Predictions, Previews
The Eagles are more than happy to play Mount St. Mary’s style of low scoring slugfests.
They might not pump in a ton of points, but they’re great from the outside, wonderful on the free throw line, and they should be able to take advantage of a slew of Mount St. Mary’s mistakes - the Mountaineers have a massive problem turning the ball over. But …
Be shocked if the Mountaineers don’t own the rebounding margin. American might shoot well - there aren’t a ton of offensive rebounding opportunities - but it doesn’t come up with defensive boards, either. Mount St. Mary’s is solid at forcing one-and-done possessions.
No, the Eagles don’t live off the three, but they count on them. The Mountaineer defense is great at closing out from the outside and getting the board on the misses.
If you love high-powered offenses and lots of scoring from all over the floor, get ready for Thursday. This will be a grind with every point like pulling teeth.
The rebounding will matter. Mount St. Mary’s will get a few extra second chance points. To overcome the disparity on the free throw line. This will come down to the last possession.
Prediction: Mount St. Mary’s 66, American 64
American vs Mount St. Mary's Betting Lines
BetMGM Line: American -2.5, o/u: 129.5
DraftKings Line: American -2.5, o/u: 129.5
FanDuel Line: American -2.5, o/u: 128.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
First Look Quick Analysis, Predictions
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