Army vs. Navy football prediction: What the analytics say

The greatest rivalry in college football kicks off this week as Army and Navy renew their hostilities to close out the 2024 season. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Navy started 6-0 and appeared to be a sleeper playoff team, but an ugly loss to Notre Dame was the first of three defeats in four games and the Midshipmen finished 8-3.

Army suffered a similar fate, but with a better outcome, losing its perfect record in a lopsided result against the Irish, but finished 11-1 and champions of the AAC after beating Tulane.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Army vs. Navy predictions

As expected, the computer models are siding with the Black Knights over the Midshipmen in this rivalry game.

Army is the favorite in the matchup, coming out on top in 66 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Navy as the presumptive winner in the remaining 34 percent of sims.

In total, the Black Knights came out ahead in 13,200 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Midshipmen edged out Army in the other 6,800 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Army is projected to be 5.6 points better than Navy on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Black Knights to cover the spread against the Midshipmen.

That’s because Army is a 6.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 38.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Army at -250 and for Navy at +202 to win outright.

What the bettors say

The vast majority of bettors expect the Black Knights to handle the Midshipmen, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Almost 8 in 10 bettors -- 79 percent of them -- believe that Army will win the game by at least a touchdown and cover the point spread.

The other 21 percent of wagers project Navy will either win outright in an upset, or keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff bracket

No. 12 Clemson at
No. 5 Texas

Winner plays No. 4 Arizona State

No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State

Winner plays No. 3 Boise State

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State

Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

College Football Playoff rankings

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss 
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson
17. BYU
18. Iowa State
19. Missouri
20. Illinois
21. Syracuse
22. Army
23. Colorado
24. UNLV
25. Memphis

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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