Big 12 Ranked Worst Power 4 Conference in ESPN FPI

The Big 12 could be in trouble next season.

Last season was the first season of the 12-team playoff, and it was somewhat of a success in its first year. However, the new format didn’t exactly help the Big 12 maintain its status as one of the top conferences in the nation.

With additions before the 2024 season effectively turning the SEC and Big Ten into superconferences, the ACC and Big 12 struggled to find a similar level of success. While the ACC still managed to get multiple teams into the playoff, the Big 12 earned only one spot.

Arizona State took the final automatic bye in the College Football Playoff picture, earning the fourth seed despite being ranked well below that mark.

While that gave the Sun Devils a bye into the quarterfinals, they still couldn’t overcome a strong Texas team, leaving the Big 12 without a playoff win. With the new format coming in 2025, teams will be seeded regardless of conference champion status. While the top five conference champions will still be given an automatic bid, the four byes will now be handed out to the top four teams.

Of course, that could make things difficult for the Big 12. If any team from the conference wants to make a run, it will need to be among the best in the country overall. If the Big 12 champion is the conference’s only bid, and it finishes in a similar spot as Arizona State, there is a possibility that the Big 12’s only playoff representative is sent on the road in the first round with unfavorable odds of advancing.

In ESPN’s FPI rankings for 2025, it projects Kansas State at No. 20 as the Big 12’s top team. It also projects the Big 12 to earn only 1.2 bids to the College Football Playoff, narrowly behind the ACC (1.6), and substantially trailing the SEC (4.6) and Big Ten (2.9).

While teams like Oklahoma State could find their way into the Big 12 title race, winning the conference seems to be the only favorable path for any Big 12 squad to make a playoff appearance in 2025.