Bracketology: How Many Big 12 Teams Will Make the 2025 NCAA Softball Tournament?

Using the metrics and data points above and cross-referencing some of the other bracket projections in the industry, here’s who should be in, where they might land, and who might miss out.

Big 12 Softball Bracketology (April 30, 2025)

Locks: Arizona, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, UCF

The Big 12 is virtually guaranteed to have four teams in the tournament as of today, with four teams ranked in the RPI top 30, and the lowest of those teams has the 12th-ranked strength of schedule.

Arizona has built a strong tournament resume, ranking 12th in RPI and having a 40-11 overall record. They could be in position to grab one of the top-eight seeds if they can win the Big 12 tournament, but even if they come up short, they should be a lock to host at least one weekend.

Texas Tech is ranked low enough that they could be in danger of not hosting at regional, and low enough that they likely won’t get to host through super regionals. However, after winning the Big 12 regular season and being the favorite to win the conference tournament, I have a hard time believing they won’t be one of the 16 seeded team in the bracket.

Stillwater has played host to plenty of regionals over the last five years, but I don’t see it in the cards for them this year. To make matters worse, the Cowgirls no longer share a conference with Oklahoma, so they could be headed to Norman for their first weekend of action.

UCF isn’t in the discussion to host a regional, but their RPI and strength of schedule does put them in line to be one of the top-16 unseeded teams in the tournament. With travel and matchups taken into account, the Knights are probably headed to Gainesville or Tallahassee.

Should Be In: Arizona State

With an RPI of 37, Arizona State should be safely inside the bubble. The Sun Devils have been competitive against the toughest teams on their schedule and should be able to move up to the “lock” group with two wins in the Big 12 Tournament.

On The Bubble: Baylor, Iowa State

Neither of these teams look like tournament teams on paper if you just look at record, RPI, and strength of schedule. However, a closer examination makes them interesting candidates.

Baylor’s played the 32nd-toughest schedule in the country and has looked like a much-improved team in recent weeks. They’re 12-4 in their last 16 games, and after a 13-20 start to the year, that’s quite a turnaround.

Meanwhile, Iowa State is having its best season in program history and currently ranks third in the Big 12 standings with a 13-8 record in league play. Like the Bears, ISU got their season off to a rough start but is 17-6 in their last 23 contests, dating back to a sweep over UCF on the road.

The Bears and Cyclones play a three-game series in Ames this weekend, and there’s a good chance that the winner of that series gets the nod and the loser misses the field.

Work To Do: BYU

Yes, BYU has the third-best winning percentage in the Big 12, and they rank ahead of both Baylor and Iowa State in RPI. So, how are they on the wrong side of the bubble? They’ve played, by far, the easiest schedule in the Big 12, with the 93rd-ranked strength of schedule. If the Cougars were 40-4, there would be little question about their standing, but their loss to Baylor this past weekend might’ve put them just outside the tournament field.