Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan prediction, pick, odds for UFC 313

Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan will face off in the UFC 313 prelims on Saturday, March 8.

Here’s my Ferreira vs. Petrosyan prediction.

Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan Odds, Prediction

Projection: Armen Petrosyan (61.8%)

Brunno Ferreira is a popular underdog selection this week; the public data I use to create my projections had Ferreira at 65% on average across the samples.

Armen Petrosyan is the more natural middleweight (4″ taller, 1″ reach advantage) and also the more technical striker (+3.0 to +0.6 strike differential per minute) with better cardio – and I favor him heavily to win any extended contest.

Ferreira is likely drawing dead to a knockout in this fight, and Petrosyan should offer more output down the stretch, potentially finding a late finish.

Brunno has rare power that carries late into fights – but I don’t trust his durability (after getting rocked three times in the UFC, including a knockout) – or his gas tank. Ferreira slows because he throws max effort into every technique – including takedowns – and I doubt he can hold Petrosyan down for an extended period of time.

Bet Petrosyan pre-fight to -150 (projected -162) and add more Live at a better number after Round 1.

I also show slight value on the fight to reach a decision (projected +142, listed +175 – compared to the middleweight average of 38% (+170 implied odds), with correlated value on Petrosyan to win by decision (projected +184, listed +270).

Bets

• Armen Petrosyan (-135, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
• Armen Petrosyan Live after Round 1