BYU's Chances at a 'Special' Season According to ESPN FPI

Last year, BYU shocked the Big 12 with an 11-win season that included a 9-0 start. Even though BYU missed out on the conference title game due to tiebreaker rules, it was a special season for BYU in just the second season in the Big 12.

BYU will be looking to go on another run in 2025. ESPN FPI released the game-by-game predictions for the 2025 season. In this article, we will look at BYU's chances to have another special season based on the ESPN FPI win probabilities.

Odds of a Special Season

A "special season" will be defined as 10 or more regular season wins. 10 or more regular seasons would give BYU a chance to go to Arlington and play in the Big 12 title game. FPI gives BYU a 26% chance to win 10 or more games and an 8% chance to win 11 or more games. These projections will update as the season progresses

• 1 or more win: 100%
• 2 or more wins: 100%
• 3 or more wins: 100%
• 4 or more wins: 100%
• 5 or more wins: 99%
• 6 or more wins: 97%
• 7 or more wins: 91%
• 8 or more wins: 75%
• 9 or more wins: 51%
• 10 or more wins: 26%
• 11 or more wins: 8%
• Undefeated: 1%

FPI Rankings for Big 12 Teams

Here are the updated 2025 rankings for Big 12 teams. There is a logjam from 16-36.

1. Kansas State (18th nationally)
2. BYU (22)
3. Arizona State (24)
4. Kansas (26)
5. Baylor (28)
6. Iowa State (33)
7. Texas Tech (35)
8. TCU (36)
9. UCF (41)
10. Utah (45)
11. Colorado (48)
12. Cincinnati (53)
13. West Virginia (56)
14. Oklahoma State (61)
15. Arizona (66)
16. Houston (70)

Conference Title Odds

The Big 12 is the most difficult power conference to predict by a wide margin. The FPI predictions reflect that. No team has greater than a 25% chance to win the conference. FPI gives BYU a 15.2% chance to win the Big 12. Here are the conference title odds for every team in the league.

1. Kansas State - 24.5%
2. Arizona State - 16.0%
3. BYU - 15.2%
4. Kansas - 11.7%
5. Baylor - 11.2%
6. Iowa State - 5.2%
7. Texas Tech - 4.1%
8. TCU - 3.8%
9. UCF - 2.8%
10. Utah - 1.8%
11. Colorado - 1.4%
12. Cincinnati - 1.3%
13. Oklahoma State - 0.4%
14. West Virginia - 0.3%
15. Arizona - 0.2%
16. Houston - 0.1%

College Football Playoff Odds

BYU has a 17.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff per FPI. That ranks third in the Big 12.

1. Kansas State - 27.0%
2. Arizona State - 18.9%
3. BYU - 17.8%
4. Kansas - 14.2%
5. Baylor - 12.5%
6. Iowa State - 6.6%
7. Texas Tech - 5.3%
8. TCU - 4.9%
9. UCF - 4.3%
10. Utah - 2.3%
11. Colorado - 1.6%
12. Cincinnati - 1.5%
13. Oklahoma State - 0.5%
14. West Virginia - 0.4%
15. Arizona - 0.2%
16. Houston - 0.1%

Chances to Reach a Bowl Game

FPI is bullish on BYU's chances to reach at least six wins and reach bowl eligibility again in 2025.

1. Kansas State - 97.9%
2. Arizona State - 97.8%
3. BYU - 97.5%
4. Kansas - 94.8%
5. Texas Tech - 91.0%
6. Baylor - 88.4%
7. UCF - 86.0%
8. Iowa State - 83.4%
9. TCU - 74.7%
10. Colorado - 70.9%
11. Utah - 68.4%
12. Cincinnati - 66.0%
13. West Virginia - 49.7%
14. Houston - 42.8%
15. Oklahoma State - 42.1%
16. Arizona - 34.9%