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Can the Yankees Count on Devin Williams in Big Moments?

Originally posted on Just Baseball | Last updated Aug 26, 2025 2:16 PM ET

The New York Yankees had quiet an eventful offseason. Superstar Juan Soto left to play across town, but the Yankees did not sit on their hands. They added several veterans, including Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Devin Williams.

Those are high-end players with playoff experience, which ultimately led to a very good offseason despite seeing Soto walk.

Of their key additions, all but Williams have lived up to, or exceeded, expectations.

The former Brewers closer was about as consistent as they come before joining the Yankees. He had three straight seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA to go with numerous memorable moments closing out games or handing that ball off to Josh Hader. However, that consistency hasn’t come with him to New York.

The plan was clear: Williams was going to be the next great Yankees closer. As many know though, that has been far from the case this season.

The reliable arm who rarely showed blemishes in Milwaukee has not been the same in 2025, and the Yankees have pivoted. Adding Camilo Doval and David Bednar, who both have closing experience, sent a clear message to the clubhouse and Williams. The trust is broken.

Since blowing back-to-back saves in early August, Williams has been demoted to mostly lower leverage innings. With the Yankees chugging toward a playoff berth, will Devin Williams ever be able to earn the Yankees’ trust back? That remains yet to be seen.

The Good

Before we dive in too deep, we need to remember a few factors in the Williams situation.

For starters, Yankees fans are not the most patient or easiest on players. Second, we are comparing this year’s Williams to previous years, where he was legitimately one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. A step back does not inherently mean that he’s been bad.

Williams is still generating a 34.6% chase rate and 37.6% whiff rate, both ranking within the top three percent of MLB.

Williams has struggled with walks throughout his career but has been dominate enough for those walks to rarely come around to score thanks to his swing-and-miss stuff. This season, Williams has posted his best walk percentage (9.5%) since the 2020 season.

In terms of his stuff, there’s not a drop off at all. Williams fastball is actually showing a bit more arm-side run while the velocity is roughly the same. His famous, otherworldly changeup is still having the bottom drop out of it. The movement profile is slightly less than last season, but more on that later.

Of his 55 outings, 40 have resulted in no earned runs. No, that is not nearly the level you would expect of Williams, but it is also not a complete disaster. Recently, Williams has started to find his rhythm since being removed from the ninth inning role.

Over his last seven appearances, Williams has not allowed an earned run and has struck out three in three of those appearances, something he has only done in four other outings this season. In a recent outing against the Rays, a 10th inning appearance, we saw both sides of the good and bad Devin Williams.

A fastball drifted and caught too much of the plate, leading to a single before a changeup wasn’t located well enough, which resulted in a double. He answered by striking out the next three hitters with the final strikeout coming on a beautiful changeup that defied physics and actually bounced in the dirt.

I know a 5.01 ERA is ugly for anyone — especially Williams — but it is not indicative of how he has actually pitched. He’s not been what many expected, but a 3.01 FIP and 3.22 xERA are much better indicators of how he’s pitched this season.

When Williams locates his changeup and utilizes it in the proper way, he’s tough to beat. The problem, though, has been locating that changeup with consistency.

The Bad

Williams has always dominated due to his changeup being ridiculous. Last season batters hit .162 off his changeup with a ridiculous 48.8% whiff rate. This season, the pitch has an opponent batting average of .204 with a 36.8% whiff rate. His changeup command has not been the same, which has resulted in the pitch catching more of the plate and leading to more damaging contact.

Via Just Baseball

Via Baseball Savant

The graphic above shows the heat map for Williams’ changeup in 2025 (left) compare to 2024 (right). As you can see, more pitches are landing higher in the zone, resulting in louder contact.

After allowing only a 26.7% hard hit rate on his changeup last season, that number has increased to over 31% this season.

Usually, righty pitchers will not throw changeups to righty batters. A guy like Williams, who throws two pitches and has a weapon of a changeup, doesn’t have much of a choice other than to throw it to batters on both sides. That’s why locating the pitch is even more important, because when he misses and it catches too much of the plate, batters can still make impact.

Sure, batters are not posting great numbers on his changeup, but he’s already allowed five home runs on the pitch after allowing six total home runs on his changeup in his career entering this season. It is clear that his command has faltered at times, which has led to blow up outings.

Speaking of blowup outings, Williams has four outing in which he has allowed three or more runs and another five outings allowing two runs. There was a stretch in late July/early August where he had five straight outings where he allowed a run, which ballooned his ERA by more than a run.

Final Thoughts

Now that Williams is out of the ninth and proven veterans have been added, it will be tough to work his way back into the high-leverage mix. He’s going to need to string together multiple weeks without significant blemishes, something he has struggled to do this season.

We have seen some fantastic outings recently, which gives me hope that Williams can at least get right and be prepared for a bigger role if injury or other factors force him into that spot. At the end of the day, Aaron Boone is the only one who needs convincing — he’s the one calling the shots.

With Bednar, Doval, and Luke Weaver as options, two of which the team determined they needed recently, I doubt that Williams can recover to a point that Boone gains confidence back in him. He can still be a valuable bullpen arm, though, and Williams will be one of the more talented middle-inning relievers down the stretch.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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