Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema looks on during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Does a Win Over Duke Guarantee No. 11 Illinois a Top-10 Spot in the Next AP Poll?

Originally posted on Illinois Fighting Illini on SI
By Jared Shlensky | Last updated Sep 6, 2025 2:09 AM ET

Can you remember the last time Illinois football was ranked in the top 10? I'll give you a hint. It has been a while. Give up? OK, it was 2001, right after the Illini beat Northwestern. It didn't last: Illinois lost to LSU in the Sugar Bowl to end the season and finished the year ranked No. 12.But the Illini have a chance to return to that exalted status – and maybe even stick around a bit longer than last time. What are the odds it happens this week?

Where Illinois currently stands

After clobbering Western Illinois 52-3 to begin the season, Illinois is ranked No. 11 going into Saturday's showdown with Duke in Durham, North Carolina.

Moving up. No. 11 in the AP Poll. pic.twitter.com/L1LlrpSGf9
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) September 2, 2025

The first step in the journey. pic.twitter.com/xQhaKEWukE
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) August 30, 2025

No. 11 isn't bad, but the Illini might have moved all the way up to No. 10 if Miami hadn't upset Notre Dame last week. Could a road win over the Blue Devils on Sunday move them into the top tier? Possibly. But it's far from a guarantee.

What must happen for Illinois to crack the AP top 10

First and foremost, Illinois has to beat Duke. No way around it. Does it matter how much the Illini win by? No, not really. But it certainly wouldn't hurt if Illinois wins by more than a touchdown. A wide margin of victory alone might not be enough, though. Illinois also needs teams ranked ahead of them to lose.

The bad news is, all the active teams ranked ahead of Illinois are playing not-so-great opponents this week, and No. 9 Notre Dame is idle. The best shot for Illinois to move up to No. 10 in the polls is if No. 7 Oregon loses to, or perhaps barely sneaks by, Oklahoma State. But even that might not get it done. In fact, Illinois could potentially slip down in the polls even if the Illini beat Duke.

Slip down? What the heck?

Absolutely. And I wouldn't be all that surprised if it happens, especially if No. 15 Michigan clobbers No. 18 Oklahoma on the road this week. And Michigan isn't the only team ranked behind Illinois that could jump the Illini in the polls. Arizona State, Iowa State and Florida State are all in a position to leapfrog Illinois with big showings.

Florida State upset Alabama last week, and if the Seminoles demolish East Texas A&M, they could jump from No. 14 to No. 11. Same goes for ASU. If the No. 12 Sun Devils win comfortably on the road against Mississippi State, don't be surprised if they surpass Illinois. No. 16 Iowa State is a long shot to push ahead of Illinois in the polls, but if the Cyclones crush Iowa on Saturday, they would be 3-0 with a pair of impressive wins after beating Kansas State in Ireland to start the season.

Again, these are all just hypothetical scenarios, but Illinois fans shouldn't get their hopes too high to see the Illini crack the top 10 – at least perhaps not just yet.

This article first appeared on Illinois Fighting Illini on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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