Early shakeup creates wide-open CFP race for Group of Five

Tulane faces South Alabama, a program with enough passing punch to push the Green Wave if focus slips. A letdown could undo the advantage Tulane gained from Boise State’s stumble.

Still, Tulane has positioned itself as the program with both the results and the momentum to be taken seriously. A road test will now reveal whether this start is sustainable or merely a fast out-of-the-gate moment.

Memphis, USF, And UNLV Bolster Playoff Push

Beyond Tulane, three other programs have emerged as strong candidates to challenge for the G5's CFP bid. Memphis holds a 16.3 percent chance, establishing itself as the second-most likely team to make the playoff. While the Tigers still need to prove it on the field, the numbers place them squarely in the conversation.

USF became the biggest storyline after dismantling Boise State 34-7 in Tampa. The Bulls sit at 14.3 percent in the Predictor and now own the third-best odds. Their trip to Florida in Week 2 presents a steep challenge, but even a competitive showing could build credibility with the playoff committee. An upset in Gainesville would catapult them into the national spotlight.

UNLV might be the most surprising entrant. The Rebels are fourth in odds at 13.5 percent despite defensive struggles. Their offense has been electric, piling up 936 yards and 76 points in two games. That explosiveness makes them a dangerous matchup for a UCLA team that looked shaky against Utah. If UNLV continues to score at this pace, it could emerge as one of the most compelling storylines of the season.

The early results have shown the Group of Five spot will not be handed to a legacy power. Tulane, Memphis, USF, and UNLV each have different strengths, but all now hold real stakes in the race. Week 2 offers a chance for one or more to prove staying power.

The Group of Five’s race is no longer predictable. Every Saturday from here will shape a playoff bid that suddenly looks as open as ever.

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