ESPN Believes This Big 12 Program Could Lose Out

According to the latest projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index, West Virginia is expected to lose every remaining game on its 2025 schedule. After dropping a 17–10 contest to Ohio in Week 2, the Mountaineers are sitting at 1–1, but the numbers suggest that may be the only win they see this year.

The FPI model, which runs thousands of season simulations based on team strength, efficiency metrics, and game location, gives WVU less than a 50 percent chance to win in each of its next ten games. The closest toss-up comes against Colorado in late November, where the Mountaineers have a 49.1 percent chance to win. Beyond that, every other opponent is favored.

Here’s how the numbers break down: West Virginia has a 40.6 percent chance to beat Pitt at home, 17.8 percent at Kansas, 22.7 percent against Utah, 11.4 percent at BYU, 30.8 percent at UCF, 22.7 percent against TCU, 31.5 percent at Houston, 49.1 percent against Colorado, 17.5 percent at Arizona State, and 29.7 percent against Texas Tech. In each case, ESPN’s model sees the Mountaineers as underdogs, often by a significant margin.

The implications are grim for a team that just made a coaching change and hoped to find some early footing under Rich Rodriguez. Now, after an uninspiring offensive showing at Ohio and with Big 12 play around the corner, the program is staring down a potential one-win season. If the projections hold true, West Virginia would finish 1–11 in Rodriguez’s first year back in Morgantown.

Still, numbers aren’t everything. The Pitt game remains a rivalry matchup that tends to play close regardless of records, and the home slate includes multiple opportunities to play spoiler. Games against TCU, Colorado, and Texas Tech all come in Morgantown, and a single win could shift the momentum inside the locker room. But for now, ESPN’s model doesn’t just have doubts about West Virginia; it has almost completely written them off.

For a fan base desperate for signs of progress, this latest forecast lands like a punch to the gut. The next few weeks will determine whether this team can fight back against the numbers or simply slide toward the bottom of the Big 12 once again.