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ESPN BPI Gives College Basketball Powerhouse a 0.1% Chance of Winning National Championship

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Kevin Borba | Last updated Mar 16, 2025 8:14 PM ET

The NCAA Tournament teams were officially selected on Sunday, and as expected, there has been plenty of pushback.

The committee, headlined by North Carolina athletic director Bubba Cunningham, had some close calls to make, but none more controversial than the fate of the Tar Heels. Although Cunningham wasn't in the room when his program's fate was decided, fans are still not thrilled over the fact a team with a 1-12 record against Quad 1 teams got in over a handful of teams with more wins in that category.

While the No. 11 seed Tar Heels are facing plenty of heat on social media for even making the tournament, ESPN's Bracket Power Index (BPI), which measures a team's strength and generates predictions, also doesn't rate them highly.

Upon being updated with the teams who made the tournament, the BPI also generated its predictions and probabilities for which teams have a chance of winning a title. For North Carolina, outside of the programs with a 0.0% chance at winning, they are tied for having the lowest chances possible with a 0.1%.

Joining the Tar Heels with just a 0.1% chance of winning are programs such as No. 11 seed VCU, No. 5 seed Oregon and No. 7 seed Saint Mary's among others.

Some might say that a small chance is better than no chance, but if there is a team in this tournament who cannot afford to faceplant, it'd be the Tar Heels. While they don't have to defy the highly improbable odds, anything short of a multi-round showing will only fuel those who felt they shouldn't have made it.

North Carolina will play in one of the first four games on Tuesday, as they will face off against fellow No. 11 seed San Diego State in the South region.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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