ESPN computer predicts Ohio State vs. Washington football game winner

Saturday brings us a major Big Ten matchup as No. 1 Ohio State goes across the country against Washington. Let’s take a look at the prediction for the matchup from a college football analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Ohio State was idle last weekend, but has outscored opponents 40 to 5 on average, with the exception of a close victory against then-No. 1 Texas, a win that propelled the reigning national champion to the top position in the national rankings since then.

Washington has quietly pummeled everything in its wake so far, ranking No. 1 in the country by averaging nearly 62 points per game while sitting top 10 nationally by averaging 260 rushing yards each time out in a very potent offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Washington prediction

As might be expected, the models are still siding with the reigning national champions in this Big Ten road test, but by a fairly close margin.

Ohio State is projected to defeat Washington outright in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 68.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Huskies as the presumptive winner in the remaining 31.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 13,760 simulations of the contest, while Washington edged out Ohio State in the other 6,240 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? The index thinks this game will be closer than most are expecting.

Ohio State is projected to be just 4.8 points better than Washington on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

• Ohio State: 68.8% chance to win
• Washington: 31.2% chance to win
• Prediction: Ohio State by 5

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Huskies.

That’s because Ohio State is an 8.5 point favorite against Washington, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -320 and for Washington at +260 to win outright.

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Ohio State vs. Washington future projections

Ohio State sits in second place among Big Ten teams when projecting what teams are in the best position to win the conference championship and qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Sitting behind Big Ten leader Oregon (25.7%), the Buckeyes are expected to finish the season as the conference champion in 24.1 percent of the computer’s simulations going forward.

But the Bucks lead the Big Ten in the playoff race, expected to make the 12-team postseason field in 76.3 percent of sims, the most of any conference team.

Ohio State is projected to win 10.7 games this season, according to the models.

Washington is seventh in the Big Ten with a 1.3 percent chance to win the Big Ten championship, and has a 15.8 percent shot to be selected for the playoff.

The model forecasts the Huskies will win 8.5 games in 2025.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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