ESPN FPI prediction for Saturday's game closer than you might expect

Late in the first half a familiar sense of dread began to fill the air.

Southern Miss had just tied the game at 10-10 and things were looking bleak for the Bulldogs, especially on offense. Mistakes and penalties had cost the Bulldogs plenty already.

However, ESPN Analytics wasn’t as concerned.

Based on the game’s win probability, when the Golden Eagles tied the game at 10-10, their win probability rose to 33.9 percent. It was the highest they would get.

ICYMI: $15 million or not, Bulldogs’ defense already paying dividends

Mississippi State ended Southern Miss’s drive and drove downfield to kick a last-second field goal (after a Kamario Taylor touchdown was called back for a holding penalty at the goal line), then came out of halftime, scored 21 points and returned home to Starkville 1-0 for the ninth consecutive season.

Analytics aren’t the end-all-be-all, but they are helpful tools in covering sports. It’s an emotion-less way of looking at sports, which is something humans generally struggle with.

ESPN Analytics won’t consider things like Mississippi State spending $9 million to make one of the toughest places to play even tougher.

So, when looking at ESPN’s FPI prediction for Saturday’s game between No. 12 Arizona State and Mississippi State, there’s more hope for an upset than you might think.