ESPN FPI Predicts BYU Football Win Total, Conference Title Odds

The college football season is quickly approaching. As we get closer to Fall camp, ESPN updated its football power index. FPI is a numbers-based ranking that is used to predict games during the season.

In the updated FPI rankings, BYU came in at no. 29. That was good enough for third in the Big 12 behind only Kansas State (21) and Arizona State (24). FPI projects BYU to go 8.0-4.2. Why is the total greater than 12? FPI gives BYU a ~20% chance to reach the Big 12 title game and play an extra game in 2025.

FPI Rankings for Big 12 Teams

Here are the updated 2025 rankings for Big 12 teams. there is a logjam from 20-35.

1. Kansas State (21st nationally)
2. Arizona State (24)
3. BYU (29)
4. Kansas (30)
5. TCU (32)
6. Baylor (33)
7. Texas Tech (35)
8. UCF (37)
9. Iowa State (45)
10. Utah (46)
11. Colorado (49)
12. Cincinnati (53)
13. West Virginia (66)
14. Oklahoma State (67)
15. Arizona (69)
16. Houston (75)

Conference Title Odds

The Big 12 is the most difficult power conference to predict by a wide margin. The FPI predictions reflect that. No team has greater than a 20% chance to win the conference. FPI gives BYU a 10.4% chance to win the Big 12. Here are the conference title odds for every team in the league.

1. Kansas State - 19.9%
2. Arizona State - 13.0%
3. Kansas - 11.3%
4. BYU - 10.4%
5. Baylor - 10.3%
6. TCU - 8.5%
7. Texas Tech - 7.8%
8. UCF - 4.7%
9. Iowa State - 3.7%
10. Utah - 3.1%
11. Cincinnati - 2.8%
12. Colorado - 2.4%
13. Oklahoma State - 0.9%
14. West Virginia - 0.6%
15. Arizona - 0.5%
16. Houston - 0.2%

College Football Playoff Odds

BYU has a 12.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff per FPI. That ranks fourth in the Big 12.

1. Kansas State - 22.2%
2. Arizona State - 16.1%
3. Kansas - 13.4%
4. BYU - 12.6%
5. Baylor - 10.5%
6. TCU - 10.3%
7. Texas Tech - 10.3%
8. UCF - 6.8%
9. Iowa State - 4.4%
10. Utah - 3.7%
11. Colorado - 3.1%
12. Cincinnati - 3.1%
13. Oklahoma State - 0.9%
14. West Virginia - 0.8%
15. Arizona - 0.5%
16. Houston - 0.3%

Chances to Reach a Bowl Game

FPI is bullish on BYU's chances to reach at least six wins and reach bowl eligibility again in 2025.

1. Kansas State - 92.7%
2. Arizona State - 90.9%
3. Texas Tech - 89.4%
4. BYU - 89.2%
5. Kansas - 87.4%
6. UCF - 80.2%
7. Baylor - 79.2%
8. TCU - 79.1%
9. Iowa State - 71.5%
10. Colorado - 69.5%
11. Utah - 67.3%
12. Cincinnati - 66.7%
13. Oklahoma State - 48.1%
14. West Virginia - 42.3%
15. Arizona - 37.7%
16. Houston - 34.8%