Sep 6, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore stands on the sideline prior to a game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

ESPN gives gloomy outlook for Michigan football's playoff chances

Originally posted on Michigan Wolverines on SI
By Seth Berry | Last updated Oct 3, 2025 2:00 PM ET

As things stand, the vibes are generally high for No. 20 Michigan football (3-1) as Sherrone Moore's team is coming off a big win against Nebraska on Sept. 20 and riding a nice wave of momentum. Of course, that can change from week to week depending on how the Wolverines perform on the field, but for now, optimism seems high for what the team's ceiling is this year.

However, as far as Michigan's playoff chances are concerned for the 2025 season, ESPN isn't necessarily giving the Wolverines a great chance to finish in the top 12 and make the field at year's end.

The Worldwide Leader in sports revealed its rankings for the 20-most likely teams to make the playoff. While Michigan made the cut on the list, the latest data only gives the Wolverines a 34% chance to make the CFP.

Compared to other Big Ten teams in the mix, Oregon and Ohio State are at 87%, Indiana at 68%, Penn State at 23% and USC is at a 21% chance to make the CFP. Overall, while the Wolverines rank as the fourth-most likely team in the conference to make the playoff according to ESPN, the algorithm doesn't seem very high on the conference as a whole, having seemingly lost all confidence in USC and Penn State after its losses last week.

The Wolverines still have USC and Ohio State on its schedule out of the aforementioned teams listed, but many believe the Maize and Blue will set themselves up in a great position if Michigan can get past the Trojans on the road on Oct. 11.

In Michigan's other games outside of the Trojans and Buckeyes, the Wolverines would seem to be clearly favored in their other matchups the rest of the season. In theory, if Moore's team split the games against Ohio State and USC, one would figure a 10-2 record would be enough to push the team into the top 12 and into the College Football Playoff after missing out in 2024.

Interestingly enough, the Alabama Crimson Tide, which also had a not-so-great out of conference game against Florida State as Michigan did against Oklahoma in Week 2, is at a 69% chance to make the CFP after its win at Georgia last weekend.

These rankings will be fluidly updated from week to week and it will be interesting to see where the Wolverines' playoff chances stand as the season wears on.

This article first appeared on Michigan Wolverines on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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