
Following an exciting Week 7 of college football, which saw the UNLV Rebels win a wild shootout against the Air Force Falcons, ESPN has once again highlighted the Rebels in their College Football Playoff 2025: Bubble Watch. This week in their Group of 5 section, they highlighted both the Rebels and USF Bulls, and also featured the Memphis Tigers, Navy Midshipmen, and Tulane Green Wave. This is what ESPN had to say about them.
"Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn't always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American's Memphis, South Florida and Tulane."
"South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls' chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida's lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee's No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation's top teams, it certainly didn't eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week's latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics."
While ESPN has the Rebels with only 9% chance of making the playoffs, their biggest disadvantage could also end up being their biggest advantage. Of all the teams in the mix for the playoffs, they are all in the American Conference, while UNLV is in the weaker Mountain West Conference. While that gives them all a chance at big wins, it also comes with the risk of big losses. If they all stop dropping games to each other, it would bump UNLV up these rankings. However, UNLV will have to knock off the Boise State Broncos in Week 8 for any of that to matter.
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